* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952022 09/08/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 39 38 35 31 26 23 22 22 25 25 25 27 29 28 27 V (KT) LAND 40 40 39 38 35 31 26 23 22 22 25 25 25 27 29 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 42 41 39 37 32 28 26 27 28 30 32 33 34 36 40 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 28 30 32 31 30 21 14 7 9 15 16 16 11 8 25 39 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 3 0 0 0 0 4 1 6 -3 0 2 8 2 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 235 223 222 223 221 223 234 300 123 163 252 322 353 177 201 237 279 SST (C) 27.1 27.3 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.9 28.7 28.4 27.4 24.7 23.0 20.5 16.4 14.2 13.5 14.3 POT. INT. (KT) 127 129 133 132 133 133 135 149 148 137 109 94 83 75 71 72 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 122 122 125 124 124 122 121 137 143 135 100 83 75 70 68 69 70 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.6 -54.7 -54.7 -54.5 -54.5 -54.3 -54.0 -53.5 -52.5 -53.0 -53.8 -53.6 -54.0 -54.7 -55.5 -56.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.7 -0.3 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 9 7 7 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 53 52 51 49 48 48 50 55 52 53 61 49 43 48 49 46 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 14 13 11 9 6 4 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 11 -6 -25 -36 -47 -59 -25 -31 -59 -32 -53 21 39 -12 -49 -95 200 MB DIV 2 -24 -10 -5 9 -12 12 1 17 18 28 0 -9 25 36 35 0 700-850 TADV 5 -2 -3 1 0 1 0 -1 13 -8 12 38 6 12 22 12 32 LAND (KM) 2004 1976 1933 1913 1891 1768 1726 1863 1899 1538 1502 1688 1587 1348 1134 755 281 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.4 20.7 21.1 21.6 22.8 24.5 26.7 30.2 35.3 40.4 43.4 46.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.0 43.4 44.8 46.1 47.3 49.4 50.4 50.0 47.4 42.7 36.6 32.0 30.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 12 12 11 10 15 26 36 30 17 17 22 22 26 27 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 19 24 17 21 26 35 16 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 779 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 17. 19. 18. 17. 15. 12. 9. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -9. -13. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -13. -18. -24. -25. -27. -28. -28. -27. -27. -26. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -14. -17. -18. -18. -15. -15. -15. -13. -11. -12. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 19.8 42.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952022 INVEST 09/08/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.11 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.94 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 287.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.64 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.29 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.47 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.11 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.82 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.4% Logistic: 1.4% 1.0% 0.7% 1.0% 0.2% 2.2% 1.2% 2.4% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 3.8% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.8% 0.4% 2.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952022 INVEST 09/08/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952022 INVEST 09/08/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 40 39 38 35 31 26 23 22 22 25 25 25 27 29 28 27 18HR AGO 40 39 38 37 34 30 25 22 21 21 24 24 24 26 28 27 26 12HR AGO 40 37 36 35 32 28 23 20 19 19 22 22 22 24 26 25 24 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 27 23 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT