* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952022 09/08/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 34 32 27 24 22 21 23 26 27 27 28 32 35 37 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 34 32 27 24 22 21 23 26 27 27 28 32 35 37 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 36 34 32 27 23 21 21 23 25 27 28 30 32 34 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP SUBT SUBT SHEAR (KT) 26 27 31 34 33 24 16 8 4 17 12 21 22 14 6 14 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 4 3 1 1 0 0 0 3 -1 -3 -1 -1 5 4 0 SHEAR DIR 233 237 229 224 225 228 229 239 108 144 214 299 316 309 272 204 213 SST (C) 26.8 27.1 27.3 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.8 28.9 29.1 27.7 25.8 24.5 24.5 24.6 24.4 24.3 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 124 127 129 133 133 133 134 151 158 140 119 106 106 106 101 97 95 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 121 122 125 124 123 122 137 151 137 111 96 97 97 89 84 82 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.6 -54.6 -54.6 -54.7 -54.3 -54.5 -54.1 -53.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.9 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.6 -0.6 -0.4 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 8 7 6 3 2 3 3 4 3 700-500 MB RH 58 56 55 53 50 48 50 54 57 53 58 55 43 36 38 33 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 15 14 13 10 8 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 15 4 -11 -27 -44 -73 -52 -2 -42 -61 -101 -102 -75 -61 -61 -76 200 MB DIV 27 3 -25 -2 -14 -9 -1 7 -12 -10 26 -15 -19 -37 -18 1 8 700-850 TADV 2 3 -1 -2 1 -5 2 4 -1 -12 4 22 22 -5 -7 -4 -3 LAND (KM) 2084 2052 2016 1972 1937 1845 1710 1760 1993 1575 1439 1815 1575 1189 861 719 658 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 20.2 20.7 21.0 21.3 22.3 23.8 25.9 29.0 33.7 38.4 39.9 37.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 40.4 41.8 43.2 44.6 46.0 48.5 50.3 50.7 49.4 45.7 39.6 32.7 27.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 13 13 12 11 13 22 33 32 24 25 22 11 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 8 11 13 18 22 15 28 35 27 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 727 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 16. 20. 22. 22. 22. 22. 21. 19. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -12. -11. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -11. -16. -22. -24. -25. -26. -26. -26. -25. -24. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -1. -3. -8. -11. -13. -14. -12. -9. -8. -8. -7. -3. 0. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.5 40.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952022 INVEST 09/08/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 14.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 228.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.70 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.21 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.50 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.13 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.9% Logistic: 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.8% 0.9% 2.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 1.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.3% 2.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952022 INVEST 09/08/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952022 INVEST 09/08/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 35 34 32 27 24 22 21 23 26 27 27 28 32 35 37 18HR AGO 35 34 34 33 31 26 23 21 20 22 25 26 26 27 31 34 36 12HR AGO 35 32 31 30 28 23 20 18 17 19 22 23 23 24 28 31 33 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 23 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT