* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952022 09/08/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 29 29 28 25 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 30 29 29 28 25 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 26 23 20 17 16 16 17 20 22 23 25 26 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 23 22 22 25 28 27 23 17 11 4 12 20 24 28 28 28 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 2 5 4 3 0 0 0 2 1 -5 -1 -3 -5 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 224 237 234 219 218 218 212 214 231 154 177 274 310 318 317 292 282 SST (C) 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.3 27.6 27.7 27.8 28.1 28.2 27.4 25.6 24.5 24.1 24.3 24.2 23.9 POT. INT. (KT) 125 124 125 126 128 132 133 134 140 144 136 115 104 101 104 103 101 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 118 117 118 120 123 123 121 128 138 132 104 90 88 93 94 93 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.6 -54.5 -54.5 -54.6 -54.5 -54.5 -54.4 -54.1 -53.6 -52.9 -53.0 -53.8 -54.2 -54.8 -54.9 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.8 -0.2 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 10 9 8 7 5 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 63 60 57 56 56 51 53 50 55 53 54 61 48 42 43 42 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 16 16 15 12 10 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 43 30 19 6 -27 -46 -67 -43 -29 -88 -61 -76 -38 -6 24 42 200 MB DIV 33 33 10 -16 -7 -9 -1 -13 0 15 22 19 -13 -30 -37 -29 -5 700-850 TADV 1 1 2 -2 0 0 2 3 1 8 2 19 27 19 14 9 -3 LAND (KM) 2060 2010 1962 1919 1877 1863 1846 1781 1865 1930 1534 1452 1719 1752 1479 1099 672 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.7 19.1 19.4 19.7 20.7 22.1 23.9 26.2 29.8 34.7 39.0 40.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 39.1 40.5 41.7 42.8 44.0 46.3 48.3 49.6 49.7 48.0 44.1 38.7 33.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 11 11 12 12 12 10 14 25 32 26 17 17 21 21 21 HEAT CONTENT 10 9 13 12 13 25 15 27 35 15 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 25. 26. 25. 24. 23. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -10. -14. -17. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -15. -21. -24. -25. -26. -26. -26. -25. -24. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -13. -16. -13. -9. -6. -7. -7. -7. -5. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.2 39.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952022 INVEST 09/08/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.22 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 171.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.24 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.51 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 6.7% 5.7% 4.3% 2.3% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.9% 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.9% 0.9% 3.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 2.5% 2.1% 1.6% 0.8% 2.2% 0.3% 1.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952022 INVEST 09/08/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952022 INVEST 09/08/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 29 29 28 25 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 28 28 27 24 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 25 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT