* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952022 09/08/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 32 30 27 23 21 21 22 25 25 23 22 23 27 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 32 30 27 23 21 21 22 25 25 23 22 23 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 29 29 26 22 19 17 17 17 19 21 22 23 24 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 20 23 22 23 26 25 18 20 4 16 14 26 28 29 28 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 3 0 1 6 2 2 0 -1 3 2 0 -5 -6 -6 -3 2 SHEAR DIR 206 229 242 237 228 219 203 203 186 167 164 204 291 320 326 315 279 SST (C) 27.0 26.7 26.7 27.0 27.1 27.7 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.1 27.8 25.6 24.4 23.9 23.9 24.2 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 126 122 122 125 126 133 132 133 136 142 141 117 104 100 101 103 101 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 117 116 118 118 125 122 122 124 134 138 109 92 87 91 95 92 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 -54.6 -54.4 -54.4 -54.1 -53.8 -53.0 -52.9 -53.5 -53.9 -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 9 9 9 7 7 6 3 2 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 65 64 61 58 57 53 50 50 52 55 54 57 55 42 37 33 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 18 17 18 18 16 13 9 6 4 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 73 53 35 26 22 -8 -34 -54 -52 -2 -70 -66 -87 -78 -53 -21 -18 200 MB DIV 66 44 29 24 -10 -4 -11 -8 16 13 -2 31 -23 -14 -23 -18 -38 700-850 TADV -1 0 5 5 5 8 -3 5 2 -1 7 -12 29 22 2 19 -9 LAND (KM) 2143 2091 2041 1986 1952 1879 1900 1822 1861 2053 1641 1394 1636 1718 1450 1155 713 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.4 18.9 19.3 19.7 20.3 21.6 23.3 25.5 28.6 33.2 38.5 41.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 37.5 38.9 40.3 41.6 42.7 45.1 47.2 49.0 49.4 48.4 45.3 40.2 34.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 14 12 11 12 12 11 13 21 32 32 21 17 22 23 19 HEAT CONTENT 12 9 8 12 11 22 17 21 32 15 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 17 CX,CY: -14/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 25. 26. 25. 24. 23. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -6. -6. -8. -8. -10. -14. -17. -20. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -2. -6. -12. -17. -22. -27. -28. -28. -27. -27. -26. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. -0. -3. -7. -9. -9. -8. -5. -5. -7. -8. -7. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.8 37.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952022 INVEST 09/08/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.33 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 165.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.77 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.18 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.51 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 1% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 8.0% 2.9% 1.9% 1.2% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 0.8% 2.7% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 3.0% 1.1% 0.7% 0.4% 1.8% 0.3% 0.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952022 INVEST 09/08/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952022 INVEST 09/08/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 30 31 32 30 27 23 21 21 22 25 25 23 22 23 27 18HR AGO 30 29 29 30 31 29 26 22 20 20 21 24 24 22 21 22 26 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 28 26 23 19 17 17 18 21 21 19 18 19 23 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT