* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952022 09/07/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 34 35 35 33 31 30 31 34 36 36 38 41 43 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 34 35 35 33 31 30 31 34 36 36 38 41 43 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 31 30 28 25 23 21 22 24 27 30 32 35 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 15 17 17 19 21 22 21 14 11 9 11 16 18 7 7 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 1 0 0 4 3 0 1 0 -1 -1 -4 -2 -6 0 1 SHEAR DIR 202 201 230 249 240 220 213 188 186 184 137 195 277 329 338 125 155 SST (C) 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.7 27.5 27.7 27.8 28.0 25.7 25.9 26.4 25.9 25.0 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 128 127 126 125 126 127 134 131 134 136 142 117 118 121 116 107 109 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 124 120 118 118 118 126 122 123 126 136 108 106 108 104 97 99 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.2 -54.5 -54.5 -54.5 -54.7 -54.5 -54.4 -54.2 -54.0 -53.5 -53.2 -53.2 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.1 -0.9 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 67 65 64 62 59 58 53 56 52 54 55 58 60 56 51 49 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 18 17 17 16 14 11 8 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 77 76 64 47 32 19 -19 -49 -77 -92 -64 -129 -101 -164 -130 -104 -97 200 MB DIV 56 49 40 30 19 4 -5 -4 2 21 14 -12 38 -24 -38 -17 -4 700-850 TADV 0 0 4 3 4 9 4 5 5 3 -8 6 -5 3 -6 -10 1 LAND (KM) 2022 2081 2004 1956 1914 1867 1875 1942 1901 1975 1802 1458 1629 2044 1741 1689 1856 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.4 17.7 18.0 18.3 19.1 20.3 22.1 24.3 27.0 31.1 35.7 37.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 36.3 37.9 39.3 40.4 41.4 43.2 45.2 47.1 48.5 48.9 47.4 43.6 37.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 12 10 10 10 12 13 13 17 26 27 24 20 18 15 13 HEAT CONTENT 9 13 12 11 14 12 22 16 22 20 12 0 0 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 660 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 24. 25. 26. 27. 26. 25. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. -0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -6. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -8. -13. -18. -23. -24. -24. -24. -23. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. 0. 1. 4. 6. 6. 8. 11. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.8 36.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952022 INVEST 09/07/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.51 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.41 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 143.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.32 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.53 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.32 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.8% 6.9% 5.5% 5.1% 3.4% 6.3% 5.8% 6.3% Logistic: 1.2% 3.1% 1.5% 0.7% 0.2% 1.1% 1.9% 3.5% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 3.4% 2.4% 1.9% 1.2% 2.5% 2.6% 3.3% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952022 INVEST 09/07/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952022 INVEST 09/07/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 34 34 35 35 33 31 30 31 34 36 36 38 41 43 18HR AGO 30 29 31 32 32 33 33 31 29 28 29 32 34 34 36 39 41 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 27 28 28 26 24 23 24 27 29 29 31 34 36 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 21 21 19 17 16 17 20 22 22 24 27 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT