* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952022 09/07/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 42 47 47 44 41 39 38 38 37 37 38 40 44 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 42 47 47 44 41 39 38 38 37 37 38 40 44 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 38 41 44 42 37 32 29 28 29 32 35 38 41 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 5 10 14 22 28 33 23 13 7 14 8 15 15 15 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 2 1 3 1 2 -3 -3 -3 0 -1 1 -6 -3 -7 -4 SHEAR DIR 16 13 200 199 225 234 230 226 222 197 237 94 180 268 309 317 324 SST (C) 28.0 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.2 26.6 26.8 26.7 27.4 27.8 27.9 28.0 26.4 26.3 26.6 27.0 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 139 134 131 131 128 121 124 123 130 135 138 142 122 119 122 126 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 133 128 127 124 116 118 116 121 122 128 134 109 102 105 110 105 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -54.2 -54.5 -54.3 -54.8 -54.5 -54.4 -54.0 -53.6 -53.0 -52.3 -52.7 -53.3 -53.6 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.2 -0.7 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 7 7 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 72 72 71 71 70 66 64 59 57 58 65 61 62 61 55 49 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 14 15 15 16 17 15 13 11 8 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 66 70 67 61 29 -3 -41 -67 -93 -80 -115 -140 -135 -153 -130 -98 200 MB DIV 63 68 71 74 65 1 9 -14 7 -6 26 14 5 24 -32 -25 -21 700-850 TADV -9 -8 2 3 7 8 10 6 4 7 7 -13 5 0 -1 -7 -15 LAND (KM) 1495 1654 1782 1892 2025 2139 2093 2071 2035 1972 2081 1683 1451 1595 1920 2012 1896 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.9 15.7 16.4 17.1 18.8 20.3 21.8 23.5 25.7 28.4 32.6 36.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 31.4 32.9 34.1 35.1 36.3 38.7 41.3 44.2 46.9 48.3 48.1 45.9 42.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 13 13 14 14 15 16 14 12 18 26 22 15 15 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 10 9 9 11 9 7 10 10 21 19 12 11 1 0 1 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 495 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 23. 26. 27. 28. 27. 26. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. -0. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -8. -8. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 1. -2. -6. -10. -15. -18. -21. -21. -21. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 17. 17. 14. 11. 9. 8. 9. 7. 7. 8. 10. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.4 31.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952022 INVEST 09/07/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.79 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 102.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.61 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 68.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.45 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 14.1% 9.2% 7.6% 5.3% 8.6% 8.1% 7.0% Logistic: 2.2% 13.0% 4.6% 1.0% 0.5% 2.6% 3.3% 6.7% Bayesian: 1.2% 6.7% 1.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% Consensus: 2.5% 11.3% 5.1% 2.9% 2.0% 3.9% 3.9% 4.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952022 INVEST 09/07/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 39 42 47 47 44 41 39 38 38 37 37 38 40 44 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 38 43 43 40 37 35 34 34 33 33 34 36 40 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 37 37 34 31 29 28 28 27 27 28 30 34 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 28 28 25 22 20 19 19 18 18 19 21 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT