* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952022 09/07/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 39 46 49 46 43 40 39 39 35 36 36 38 42 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 39 46 49 46 43 40 39 39 35 36 36 38 42 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 31 33 36 40 40 36 32 28 27 28 29 32 34 37 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 7 6 7 12 24 28 34 30 15 8 9 15 14 18 16 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 1 2 0 3 -1 -4 -4 1 2 -1 -6 -6 -5 -7 SHEAR DIR 18 21 360 218 212 239 231 227 224 231 202 70 131 252 297 309 314 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.5 27.4 26.9 26.5 26.7 27.1 27.7 27.8 28.0 26.1 26.4 26.5 26.8 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 137 132 131 125 121 123 127 134 136 142 119 120 121 124 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 140 135 129 128 122 115 118 119 121 124 134 108 104 104 109 105 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -54.0 -54.0 -53.7 -54.2 -54.5 -54.6 -54.7 -54.2 -54.1 -53.5 -52.8 -52.1 -52.3 -52.7 -53.1 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.4 -0.5 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 72 72 72 72 71 66 63 61 55 55 63 63 62 63 52 49 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 14 15 15 17 17 14 12 9 7 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 63 62 61 60 30 0 -37 -68 -100 -97 -112 -121 -133 -159 -141 -108 200 MB DIV 66 64 73 78 74 20 -4 -1 5 -15 25 3 16 13 -10 -22 -20 700-850 TADV -7 -10 -7 3 6 13 14 5 -4 7 6 -1 -7 3 -4 -3 -25 LAND (KM) 1277 1423 1537 1654 1776 2077 2229 2162 2152 2002 2102 1743 1448 1554 1889 1995 1874 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.0 14.7 15.7 16.6 18.6 20.4 21.9 23.5 25.5 28.1 31.9 36.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 29.3 30.7 31.8 32.9 34.0 36.7 39.4 42.6 45.7 47.9 48.1 46.4 42.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 14 14 15 16 16 17 15 13 16 25 24 17 15 15 15 HEAT CONTENT 13 12 9 8 10 8 5 10 17 17 12 12 0 1 1 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 462 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 26. 29. 31. 32. 32. 32. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 1. -3. -6. -7. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 1. -3. -7. -11. -16. -20. -20. -20. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 21. 24. 21. 18. 15. 14. 14. 10. 11. 11. 13. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.7 29.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952022 INVEST 09/07/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.82 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.61 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 84.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.57 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.69 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.47 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 16.2% 10.2% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.7% 0.0% Logistic: 6.0% 35.7% 17.4% 5.0% 3.0% 8.7% 8.1% 8.6% Bayesian: 1.6% 18.3% 4.2% 0.3% 0.2% 1.6% 0.7% 0.4% Consensus: 4.1% 23.4% 10.6% 4.5% 1.1% 3.4% 5.8% 3.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952022 INVEST 09/07/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 32 36 39 46 49 46 43 40 39 39 35 36 36 38 42 18HR AGO 25 24 28 32 35 42 45 42 39 36 35 35 31 32 32 34 38 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 28 35 38 35 32 29 28 28 24 25 25 27 31 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 25 28 25 22 19 18 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT