* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952022 07/01/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 25 26 26 31 36 42 48 53 58 64 68 73 75 76 79 V (KT) LAND 25 23 25 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 28 28 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 23 24 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 28 28 28 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP EXTP SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 8 10 1 7 7 5 13 7 2 5 9 7 5 6 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 2 -2 3 8 -1 3 -5 -5 -4 11 0 2 -4 -1 -3 3 SHEAR DIR 260 114 140 177 49 109 53 88 14 101 335 310 284 16 4 80 64 SST (C) 29.3 29.7 29.9 30.1 30.2 30.5 31.2 31.8 32.0 32.5 31.1 30.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.3 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 154 161 165 168 169 170 170 171 172 173 173 172 162 159 157 156 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 135 137 139 141 149 160 171 172 173 162 152 132 127 125 128 122 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 -53.9 -53.2 -53.5 -53.0 -53.0 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 11 12 9 12 9 12 8 12 6 12 4 11 5 11 6 700-500 MB RH 51 52 52 52 48 53 51 52 53 53 48 52 53 55 57 65 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 3 3 4 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -16 -3 -16 -6 -12 -7 -30 -46 -24 -41 -32 -50 -59 -101 -26 -27 200 MB DIV -5 -16 -3 -22 -8 -11 13 -22 39 27 -8 -18 -10 -51 14 20 3 700-850 TADV 4 -4 0 5 -4 -2 -7 -10 1 3 71 21 17 7 0 10 16 LAND (KM) 11 -30 -68 -107 -141 -262 -385 -536 -705 -867 -886 -789 -666 -525 -427 -335 -173 LAT (DEG N) 28.2 28.7 29.1 29.5 29.8 30.8 31.9 33.3 35.3 37.4 38.2 37.8 36.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.5 96.5 96.6 96.6 96.7 97.2 97.5 97.9 97.5 95.5 92.1 88.9 86.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 4 4 6 6 9 11 14 13 13 9 6 4 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 23 32 29 8 7 6 7 7 7 9 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 20. 25. 29. 34. 39. 43. 44. 46. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 11. 12. 12. 11. 11. 11. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 1. 1. 6. 11. 17. 23. 28. 33. 39. 43. 48. 50. 52. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 28.2 96.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952022 INVEST 07/01/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.88 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 86.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.70 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.09 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 10.5% 7.4% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 9.4% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 7.8% 5.7% 2.7% 0.7% 3.1% 2.1% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 6.1% 4.4% 3.1% 0.2% 1.0% 3.8% 0.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952022 INVEST 07/01/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952022 INVEST 07/01/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 23 25 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 28 28 28 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 26 26 27 27 28 28 28 28 29 29 29 28 28 28 28 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 22 22 23 23 23 23 24 24 24 23 23 23 23 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 16 17 17 17 17 18 18 18 17 17 17 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT