* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952022 07/01/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 33 34 36 40 45 51 55 60 64 68 72 73 74 74 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 28 29 29 29 28 27 30 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 28 29 29 29 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT EXTP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 5 3 8 7 11 5 13 2 15 5 6 14 9 14 17 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 7 3 0 5 1 4 -3 0 -5 8 3 6 4 6 3 2 SHEAR DIR 209 280 102 136 176 86 124 69 346 65 307 9 267 320 254 302 299 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.4 29.6 29.8 30.1 30.4 30.9 31.8 32.0 31.4 31.1 29.5 28.9 27.6 26.0 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 156 159 163 169 170 171 172 173 173 173 162 151 133 115 107 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 126 130 133 135 142 146 158 172 173 169 161 134 126 112 99 93 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -53.5 -53.3 -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 -53.4 -53.9 -53.7 -53.6 -53.2 -53.5 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 11 12 8 12 9 12 6 16 4 13 1 5 1 5 700-500 MB RH 55 51 52 53 50 51 51 53 55 53 50 48 52 54 56 64 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 3 3 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -16 -16 -7 -8 -3 -32 -3 -34 -41 -36 -33 -32 -36 -44 -25 -20 200 MB DIV -1 -17 -15 8 -20 0 -12 -3 5 24 -3 7 8 22 10 -11 43 700-850 TADV 4 1 -6 -1 4 -10 6 -35 13 -30 69 32 33 18 7 6 24 LAND (KM) 71 38 5 -29 -60 -145 -280 -419 -627 -820 -964 -999 -941 -757 -490 -203 21 LAT (DEG N) 27.4 27.8 28.2 28.6 29.0 29.7 30.9 32.0 33.9 36.3 38.3 39.3 39.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.6 96.6 96.6 96.6 96.6 97.0 97.4 98.1 98.6 97.9 95.4 92.2 88.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 8 11 13 14 13 14 14 13 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 24 32 30 5 6 6 7 7 6 6 4 4 2 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 19. 24. 28. 32. 36. 39. 39. 39. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 10. 15. 21. 25. 30. 34. 38. 42. 43. 44. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 27.4 96.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952022 INVEST 07/01/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.85 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 80.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.27 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.61 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.10 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.81 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 13.5% 9.0% 8.4% 6.1% 9.6% 10.0% 14.9% Logistic: 1.0% 4.3% 2.6% 1.2% 0.3% 3.7% 2.6% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 6.0% 3.9% 3.2% 2.1% 4.4% 4.2% 5.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952022 INVEST 07/01/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952022 INVEST 07/01/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 28 29 29 29 28 27 30 18HR AGO 30 29 30 27 26 26 26 26 26 26 27 28 28 28 27 26 29 12HR AGO 30 27 26 23 22 22 22 22 22 22 23 24 24 24 23 22 25 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 21 21 21 20 19 22 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT