* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952022 06/30/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 31 33 34 38 44 50 56 60 65 68 71 74 75 76 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 28 29 29 29 28 31 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 28 29 29 29 28 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SUBT EXTP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 7 2 6 3 9 6 7 12 6 16 8 7 9 17 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 4 7 4 1 9 0 1 -4 -1 -5 3 4 7 4 2 0 SHEAR DIR 196 223 277 82 140 25 119 48 99 13 44 352 4 339 253 297 313 SST (C) 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.6 29.9 30.2 30.6 31.0 31.5 31.9 32.9 31.1 31.1 29.2 27.2 24.3 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 154 160 165 169 169 170 171 172 173 172 173 158 129 101 91 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 127 130 133 137 141 149 157 169 172 173 160 163 133 111 88 82 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.8 -53.1 -53.5 -53.0 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 8 7 11 9 12 9 12 8 11 7 13 3 9 3 7 700-500 MB RH 57 56 52 54 54 51 55 54 55 56 55 49 52 55 59 59 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 3 3 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -15 -7 -25 -10 0 -13 -17 -21 -23 -47 -40 -34 -11 -32 12 2 11 200 MB DIV 4 -11 -19 -17 7 13 -5 26 -18 8 2 -3 50 30 2 58 23 700-850 TADV 0 4 5 -6 -4 2 -4 -14 -4 13 0 67 0 53 17 18 37 LAND (KM) 106 57 24 -23 -59 -152 -259 -373 -542 -729 -887 -999 -999 -993 -630 -295 71 LAT (DEG N) 27.3 27.8 28.2 28.7 29.1 29.9 30.8 31.7 33.1 35.0 37.2 38.9 39.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.2 96.3 96.3 96.4 96.4 96.7 97.1 97.7 98.4 98.6 97.2 94.7 91.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 6 8 11 13 13 15 17 18 14 19 HEAT CONTENT 24 20 22 32 31 7 6 6 7 7 9 6 6 4 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 19. 24. 28. 32. 37. 40. 41. 40. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 9. 8. 8. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 14. 20. 26. 30. 35. 38. 41. 44. 45. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 27.3 96.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952022 INVEST 06/30/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.82 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.27 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 59.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.61 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.10 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 12.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.88 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.7% 10.4% 7.3% 6.6% 4.8% 8.6% 9.9% 16.2% Logistic: 1.2% 4.0% 2.0% 0.6% 0.1% 2.5% 4.0% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 5.1% 3.2% 2.4% 1.6% 3.7% 4.6% 5.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952022 INVEST 06/30/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952022 INVEST 06/30/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 31 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 28 29 29 29 28 31 18HR AGO 30 29 29 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 27 27 26 29 12HR AGO 30 27 26 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 23 24 24 24 23 26 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 22 22 22 21 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT