* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952022 06/30/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 32 33 36 40 46 50 56 59 63 66 68 65 63 59 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 28 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 28 29 30 30 29 29 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 28 29 30 30 29 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SUBT SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 12 11 8 5 3 10 2 14 11 14 13 5 25 35 36 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -5 3 5 1 9 -2 4 -6 -4 -4 2 4 3 5 5 2 SHEAR DIR 204 192 228 290 34 214 55 291 33 323 51 300 55 253 273 270 259 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.4 29.6 30.0 30.1 30.1 30.3 31.8 32.1 31.1 30.5 27.9 23.1 21.8 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 150 156 159 167 170 170 171 172 173 173 174 139 96 91 92 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 125 126 131 133 140 142 142 147 172 173 165 155 120 87 83 84 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.4 -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.9 -53.5 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.4 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 10 10 9 8 12 8 12 8 12 6 16 1 4 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 59 58 55 52 53 52 53 53 54 58 57 57 62 64 63 54 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -11 -2 -19 -7 -9 -2 -20 -15 -29 -11 -1 16 -23 30 -1 -23 200 MB DIV -12 -2 1 -10 -16 8 -1 0 -6 21 40 31 44 21 22 8 19 700-850 TADV -1 0 3 0 -2 4 -14 4 -41 10 -16 79 31 33 -5 6 -1 LAND (KM) 73 36 11 -15 -54 -133 -242 -371 -535 -736 -911 -999 -999 -945 -506 -4 280 LAT (DEG N) 26.7 27.1 27.4 27.8 28.2 29.0 30.0 31.2 32.6 34.6 37.1 39.2 40.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.7 97.1 97.3 97.4 97.5 97.7 98.1 98.6 99.3 99.5 98.2 95.2 91.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 9 12 15 16 18 20 22 25 26 HEAT CONTENT 25 20 22 26 31 5 5 5 5 7 7 6 6 2 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 27. 31. 36. 38. 38. 37. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. 7. 4. -0. -5. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 16. 20. 26. 29. 33. 36. 38. 35. 33. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 26.7 96.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952022 INVEST 06/30/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.78 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 24.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.16 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 81.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.30 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.59 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.10 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 10.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.89 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 11.2% 7.8% 7.3% 5.3% 9.0% 9.6% 14.2% Logistic: 1.3% 4.1% 2.3% 0.9% 0.2% 3.0% 3.0% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 5.3% 3.4% 2.7% 1.8% 4.0% 4.2% 5.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952022 INVEST 06/30/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952022 INVEST 06/30/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 31 28 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 28 29 30 30 29 29 18HR AGO 30 29 29 26 26 25 25 25 25 25 25 26 27 28 28 27 27 12HR AGO 30 27 26 23 23 22 22 22 22 22 22 23 24 25 25 24 24 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 21 22 22 21 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT