* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952022 06/30/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 32 32 33 37 37 41 45 49 54 59 63 68 71 73 74 V (KT) LAND 30 30 32 32 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 28 29 29 28 28 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 31 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 28 29 29 28 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SUBT EXTP SUBT SUBT TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 11 11 7 8 4 9 8 5 9 4 9 7 9 12 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -5 2 5 0 8 0 3 -4 3 -2 5 3 3 -2 7 SHEAR DIR 242 191 188 214 285 113 85 115 40 97 10 327 18 252 272 276 278 SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.8 30.1 30.2 30.6 31.5 32.0 33.1 31.2 29.6 28.9 27.1 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 151 147 146 147 151 163 169 170 170 171 172 173 173 164 151 127 101 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 125 123 124 127 137 141 144 151 171 172 173 167 137 126 108 88 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 -53.3 -53.4 -53.3 -53.9 -53.4 -53.9 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 10 10 9 11 9 12 9 12 9 12 6 10 2 6 1 700-500 MB RH 59 59 59 57 53 55 49 53 52 53 55 53 49 55 57 59 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 7 5 4 5 2 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 5 -20 -9 2 -18 -7 -7 -21 -28 -27 -31 -14 -20 -43 -69 -55 -57 200 MB DIV 0 -9 6 3 -13 9 7 -24 20 -13 23 -8 13 -6 16 3 19 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 4 1 -1 -5 -3 -14 -3 18 6 86 21 12 8 21 LAND (KM) 102 77 64 55 28 -53 -140 -256 -390 -574 -756 -929 -986 -921 -771 -524 -226 LAT (DEG N) 26.2 26.5 26.8 27.2 27.6 28.5 29.4 30.5 31.7 33.3 35.4 37.8 39.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 96.2 96.6 96.8 96.9 97.0 97.1 97.3 97.7 98.1 98.7 98.4 96.4 92.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 7 9 12 15 15 15 13 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 41 28 22 19 21 33 6 5 6 7 7 9 6 4 4 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 27. 31. 36. 39. 40. 40. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 2. 3. 7. 7. 11. 15. 19. 24. 29. 33. 38. 41. 43. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 26.2 96.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952022 INVEST 06/30/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.76 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 73.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 95.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.57 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.13 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 14.3% 9.4% 8.6% 6.3% 9.9% 10.5% 14.8% Logistic: 2.2% 7.0% 4.7% 1.7% 0.4% 3.8% 2.5% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 7.3% 4.8% 3.4% 2.2% 4.6% 4.3% 5.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952022 INVEST 06/30/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952022 INVEST 06/30/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 32 32 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 28 29 29 28 28 18HR AGO 30 29 31 31 32 28 26 26 26 26 26 26 27 28 28 27 27 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 27 23 21 21 21 21 21 21 22 23 23 22 22 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 17 15 15 15 15 15 15 16 17 17 16 16 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT