* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952022 06/29/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 37 39 38 42 46 51 54 59 63 67 70 71 77 79 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 37 39 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 28 29 30 29 V (KT) LGEM 30 34 37 39 40 42 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 28 29 30 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 14 11 7 12 8 7 3 10 9 6 9 5 23 13 1 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 -1 -3 2 0 10 1 4 -3 3 -1 3 3 14 10 SHEAR DIR 204 219 241 203 194 278 138 40 121 45 90 11 331 340 31 274 260 SST (C) 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.9 30.1 30.2 30.5 31.4 32.0 32.5 31.2 30.0 27.2 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 156 153 149 147 147 151 166 170 170 170 171 171 172 174 174 132 101 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 131 127 125 125 128 140 142 144 148 167 171 172 167 153 118 93 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 7 7 10 9 11 10 12 9 12 9 12 7 10 2 8 700-500 MB RH 61 62 58 60 60 54 55 50 54 53 54 57 60 58 60 57 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 6 7 7 3 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 21 7 -11 -7 -24 -3 -11 -18 -11 -24 -21 -23 -21 54 67 75 200 MB DIV 11 -2 -4 -10 -2 -9 7 8 -13 32 -3 49 31 45 45 30 32 700-850 TADV 1 1 -4 -2 0 0 -4 9 -3 -8 -6 8 10 110 72 100 96 LAND (KM) 180 120 80 46 43 7 -87 -190 -321 -438 -606 -763 -920 -999 -999 -778 -201 LAT (DEG N) 25.8 25.8 26.0 26.2 26.6 27.5 28.6 29.6 30.9 32.0 33.5 35.2 37.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.4 96.0 96.4 96.8 97.0 97.3 97.5 97.8 98.2 98.5 99.0 98.9 97.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 4 4 5 6 6 7 7 9 9 13 16 23 26 27 HEAT CONTENT 49 42 33 25 22 22 25 5 5 6 7 7 8 6 5 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 27. 30. 35. 39. 40. 41. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 9. 10. 9. 6. 4. 5. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -5. -6. -9. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 9. 8. 12. 16. 21. 24. 29. 33. 37. 40. 41. 47. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 25.8 95.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952022 INVEST 06/29/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.69 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.23 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.21 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 33.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.91 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.17 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.59 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.13 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.87 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 10.3% 7.3% 6.9% 4.7% 8.0% 9.6% 15.3% Logistic: 2.3% 7.6% 4.4% 2.1% 0.5% 4.2% 6.1% 2.1% Bayesian: 2.4% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 6.2% 4.0% 3.0% 1.7% 4.1% 5.3% 5.8% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952022 INVEST 06/29/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952022 INVEST 06/29/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 35 37 39 38 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 28 29 30 29 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 35 34 26 24 23 23 23 23 23 24 25 26 25 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 29 21 19 18 18 18 18 18 19 20 21 20 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT