* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952022 06/29/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 32 34 37 43 48 53 57 62 66 71 72 73 73 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 32 34 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 29 30 30 33 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 30 31 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 29 30 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 15 14 7 12 6 4 5 2 10 10 12 21 3 20 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -2 -1 -1 2 0 6 2 6 -1 -2 -1 3 12 10 -2 SHEAR DIR 245 220 231 255 239 232 31 232 69 233 48 301 349 318 289 245 262 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.9 29.2 29.9 30.1 30.1 30.4 31.1 32.0 32.9 31.2 24.3 23.0 20.9 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 152 149 147 152 166 169 170 170 171 172 174 175 105 98 88 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 134 130 126 125 128 139 142 142 147 162 172 174 174 94 90 82 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.7 -53.3 -53.7 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 8 9 7 7 10 7 11 8 11 8 12 6 11 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 61 60 63 58 59 58 55 54 54 55 58 60 60 57 59 56 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 8 6 7 6 5 4 3 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 15 14 -3 -28 -6 -12 -18 -20 -32 -21 -43 -21 19 59 32 56 200 MB DIV 0 2 -4 -1 -6 -1 -14 0 -31 14 -8 41 53 41 66 22 28 700-850 TADV -3 1 0 -2 -2 3 -4 5 -9 6 -25 28 5 153 61 23 -35 LAND (KM) 242 173 128 100 74 7 -94 -196 -310 -439 -614 -811 -999 -999 -999 -585 16 LAT (DEG N) 26.3 26.3 26.4 26.6 26.9 27.7 28.6 29.6 30.7 31.9 33.4 35.5 38.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.8 95.5 96.0 96.4 96.7 97.2 97.6 97.9 98.3 98.7 99.4 99.3 98.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 7 9 12 17 21 26 29 28 HEAT CONTENT 35 45 44 33 22 23 19 5 5 5 6 7 9 6 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 25. 29. 33. 37. 42. 42. 42. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 8. 9. 7. 4. 3. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 12. 18. 23. 28. 32. 37. 41. 46. 47. 48. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 26.3 94.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952022 INVEST 06/29/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.66 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.24 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.35 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 51.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.89 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.20 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.65 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.13 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 9.5% 6.9% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0% 8.2% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 4.7% 2.4% 0.7% 0.2% 3.1% 5.1% 1.8% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 4.9% 3.1% 2.4% 0.1% 1.1% 4.4% 0.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952022 INVEST 06/29/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952022 INVEST 06/29/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 31 32 34 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 29 30 30 33 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 29 31 25 24 24 24 24 24 24 26 27 27 30 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 24 26 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 21 22 22 25 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT