* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952022 06/29/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 22 23 24 29 32 38 43 47 52 56 60 64 63 66 66 V (KT) LAND 20 20 22 23 24 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 29 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 21 21 21 25 26 27 27 27 27 29 30 30 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT EXTP SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 18 10 13 15 14 10 9 4 9 4 14 4 20 18 12 17 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -1 -1 -2 1 0 1 0 -3 -4 -1 -3 9 7 -2 SHEAR DIR 247 242 222 230 248 202 301 113 347 95 358 5 348 335 6 243 246 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.9 30.2 30.2 30.4 31.2 32.0 32.8 31.2 18.9 22.9 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 158 158 154 153 166 170 170 171 171 172 173 175 81 97 109 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 137 135 134 131 130 140 144 144 148 165 172 173 173 76 88 97 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.6 -54.4 -54.2 -54.1 -53.9 -53.8 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 8 9 7 10 9 11 9 11 9 11 8 13 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 58 61 61 61 58 59 51 54 49 54 56 55 51 54 57 52 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 13 20 9 -3 -16 -35 -8 -4 -13 -9 -41 -40 -5 9 18 -9 200 MB DIV 19 2 7 -16 -9 5 -17 -6 25 -10 49 -23 38 44 91 -14 17 700-850 TADV -4 -3 2 1 -1 0 1 0 0 -2 4 3 46 33 100 -18 -32 LAND (KM) 315 250 202 156 131 65 -36 -154 -274 -439 -614 -825 -999 -999 -999 -693 -151 LAT (DEG N) 26.3 26.2 26.3 26.4 26.7 27.4 28.3 29.4 30.5 31.9 33.4 35.6 38.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 94.0 94.7 95.2 95.7 96.1 96.7 97.1 97.5 98.0 98.7 99.4 99.4 98.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 6 8 10 12 14 21 25 27 23 HEAT CONTENT 35 37 41 46 39 20 31 6 5 5 6 7 9 6 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 3. 9. 16. 21. 26. 31. 35. 41. 46. 46. 46. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 4. 9. 12. 18. 23. 27. 32. 36. 40. 44. 43. 46. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 26.3 94.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952022 INVEST 06/29/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.58 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.26 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 44.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.90 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.74 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.14 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 6.6% 4.3% 1.7% 0.3% 3.8% 3.3% 2.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 2.3% 1.5% 0.6% 0.1% 1.3% 1.1% 0.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952022 INVEST 06/29/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952022 INVEST 06/29/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 22 23 24 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 29 30 30 30 18HR AGO 20 19 21 22 23 28 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 28 29 29 29 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 18 23 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 23 24 24 24 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT