* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952022 06/29/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 20 21 22 26 29 34 39 43 48 52 57 61 65 67 70 V (KT) LAND 20 19 20 21 22 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 28 29 29 30 V (KT) LGEM 20 18 17 17 17 17 17 22 25 26 27 27 27 28 29 29 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SUBT EXTP SUBT EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 20 12 13 18 10 12 5 3 12 8 16 13 18 11 14 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -4 -4 -2 -4 3 0 5 -2 0 -6 -5 -4 2 1 14 SHEAR DIR 232 248 243 222 233 267 260 32 321 54 351 31 358 39 311 14 300 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.9 30.6 31.3 31.7 31.9 32.1 32.8 31.2 31.2 29.3 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 160 160 158 154 166 169 169 170 170 171 172 172 172 160 109 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 137 136 136 134 131 139 151 162 170 170 171 172 161 162 136 97 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.4 -54.6 -54.5 -54.3 -54.0 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.5 -53.9 -53.5 -53.8 -53.4 -53.7 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 0.0 -0.2 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 4 8 8 6 10 7 12 8 12 7 13 4 14 2 7 700-500 MB RH 59 57 59 61 61 58 56 52 52 55 56 56 57 54 53 62 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 6 7 6 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 6 4 10 5 -44 -31 -18 -21 -9 -30 -36 -44 -39 -23 19 30 200 MB DIV 3 18 -10 7 -14 8 -21 -9 -11 -12 2 0 11 2 -1 65 0 700-850 TADV 0 -3 -2 2 1 1 7 -5 13 -19 12 -20 34 0 56 37 85 LAND (KM) 343 312 286 245 210 98 -7 -130 -230 -350 -482 -627 -796 -946 -999 -999 -654 LAT (DEG N) 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.7 26.9 27.7 28.7 29.8 30.8 31.8 33.0 34.5 36.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 93.2 93.7 94.2 94.7 95.1 95.8 96.1 96.3 96.5 97.0 97.4 97.5 96.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 5 4 5 5 5 6 5 6 7 9 11 11 13 18 24 HEAT CONTENT 41 36 32 31 32 22 33 7 7 7 7 7 9 6 6 4 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -0. 3. 9. 16. 21. 26. 31. 36. 42. 47. 49. 51. 50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 7. 6. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. -1. -1. -2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. 1. 2. 6. 9. 14. 19. 23. 28. 32. 37. 41. 45. 47. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 26.5 93.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952022 INVEST 06/29/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.49 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 38.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.90 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.29 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.74 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.14 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.88 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 4.6% 3.2% 1.6% 0.3% 2.8% 2.8% 2.6% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 1.5% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 1.0% 0.9% 0.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952022 INVEST 06/29/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952022 INVEST 06/29/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 19 20 21 22 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 28 29 29 30 18HR AGO 20 19 20 21 22 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 28 29 29 30 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 18 22 22 22 23 23 23 23 23 24 25 25 26 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT