* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952022 06/28/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 24 28 34 37 42 47 51 56 61 64 65 69 72 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 24 28 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 28 29 29 V (KT) LGEM 20 19 18 18 18 18 18 21 25 26 27 27 27 27 28 29 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT EXTP SUBT EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 17 19 18 12 14 18 7 18 4 11 5 16 10 24 8 3 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 -3 -3 -3 0 0 0 -4 -2 -7 -5 -7 1 4 4 SHEAR DIR 220 235 247 244 223 265 254 315 348 355 22 349 2 7 47 9 274 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.9 30.9 31.8 31.9 32.1 32.0 33.1 31.2 30.9 28.4 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 163 164 163 161 161 162 166 169 169 169 170 170 171 172 174 146 98 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 138 138 137 137 137 140 157 169 169 170 170 171 163 163 126 87 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.2 -54.4 -54.6 -54.6 -54.3 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 -53.7 -53.7 -53.2 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 8 6 10 7 11 8 10 6 10 6 10 0 4 700-500 MB RH 58 58 57 59 60 56 58 51 53 53 59 57 60 60 65 66 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 6 7 6 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 11 4 2 3 -34 -38 -41 9 0 -27 -57 -42 -64 -3 -21 -18 200 MB DIV -1 8 11 0 10 -13 2 0 -3 15 -14 8 -27 39 38 43 -6 700-850 TADV 2 1 0 -1 2 1 1 9 -1 -2 -3 6 -1 39 18 34 11 LAND (KM) 312 318 325 291 252 145 20 -71 -195 -290 -408 -523 -690 -854 -967 -881 -451 LAT (DEG N) 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.8 26.9 27.6 28.6 29.6 30.8 31.7 32.9 34.1 35.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.4 92.7 93.1 93.6 94.1 94.9 95.5 95.6 95.8 96.0 96.1 95.9 95.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 4 5 4 5 6 6 6 5 7 7 10 12 17 19 20 HEAT CONTENT 41 42 43 39 33 27 29 19 7 7 7 7 9 6 6 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 3. 9. 16. 21. 26. 31. 36. 42. 47. 50. 52. 50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 7. 5. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -3. -5. -3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 17. 22. 27. 31. 36. 41. 44. 45. 49. 52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 26.7 92.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952022 INVEST 06/28/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.50 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.26 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 43.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.90 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.75 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.16 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.81 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 5.9% 3.9% 1.6% 0.3% 2.6% 4.1% 3.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 2.0% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.9% 1.4% 1.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952022 INVEST 06/28/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952022 INVEST 06/28/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 21 22 24 28 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 28 29 29 18HR AGO 20 19 20 21 23 27 33 28 26 26 26 26 26 26 27 28 28 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 19 23 29 24 22 22 22 22 22 22 23 24 24 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT