* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952022 06/28/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 31 35 40 43 48 52 54 60 63 67 68 71 71 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 31 35 40 35 30 28 27 27 27 27 28 29 30 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 27 28 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 28 29 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 17 20 19 9 17 12 14 14 13 16 12 7 14 16 27 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 -1 -1 -3 -5 2 -3 -3 -5 -5 0 -2 0 -2 3 SHEAR DIR 231 220 237 254 252 239 285 272 346 332 32 339 349 316 331 331 355 SST (C) 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.3 30.0 30.5 31.4 31.8 32.0 32.1 32.6 31.5 31.2 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 165 163 161 161 160 158 155 168 170 169 170 169 170 171 173 174 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 138 138 138 137 135 132 143 149 164 170 169 170 171 170 166 132 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -54.6 -54.7 -54.7 -54.6 -54.1 -54.1 -53.8 -54.2 -53.7 -54.1 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 7 6 4 9 6 10 8 12 7 10 4 10 1 12 0 700-500 MB RH 56 58 58 57 58 61 59 56 55 54 62 61 64 62 60 59 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 3 4 4 4 5 4 3 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 21 25 10 3 1 -40 -34 -7 -17 -4 -33 -29 -51 -69 -16 4 200 MB DIV -12 -1 15 12 -10 -8 2 -7 -9 18 0 -2 6 -2 -8 5 73 700-850 TADV -2 1 0 -1 -1 2 1 6 4 2 -26 9 -5 31 18 88 28 LAND (KM) 318 340 351 330 296 206 79 -45 -187 -312 -421 -534 -647 -805 -977 -999 -999 LAT (DEG N) 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.4 26.8 27.7 28.9 30.2 31.4 32.4 33.6 34.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.3 92.7 93.2 93.7 94.2 95.3 96.1 96.5 96.8 97.0 97.3 97.3 97.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 4 5 5 6 7 6 6 6 5 7 10 13 16 19 HEAT CONTENT 39 41 40 37 33 36 21 32 6 7 7 7 7 8 6 6 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 9. 15. 20. 25. 29. 34. 39. 43. 46. 48. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 15. 18. 23. 27. 29. 35. 38. 42. 43. 46. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 26.6 92.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952022 INVEST 06/28/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.52 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.25 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.33 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 78.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.31 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.72 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.14 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 27.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.72 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 7.6% 5.6% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 7.3% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 8.6% 6.3% 3.9% 0.8% 4.4% 5.1% 3.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 5.4% 4.0% 3.0% 0.3% 1.5% 4.1% 1.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952022 INVEST 06/28/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952022 INVEST 06/28/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 29 31 35 40 35 30 28 27 27 27 27 28 29 30 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 29 33 38 33 28 26 25 25 25 25 26 27 28 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 29 34 29 24 22 21 21 21 21 22 23 24 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 21 26 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT