* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL952022 06/28/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 32 38 44 50 50 52 55 63 68 75 75 78 82 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 32 38 44 50 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 26 26 28 29 32 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SHEAR (KT) 17 12 15 18 16 12 12 8 11 2 6 3 6 2 5 7 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 -1 -3 -1 0 -4 -1 0 0 2 3 0 -1 0 1 -1 4 SHEAR DIR 244 242 223 241 255 213 250 207 327 114 334 167 333 74 335 62 17 SST (C) 30.4 30.1 29.9 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.3 30.5 31.8 32.1 32.1 32.1 32.6 33.1 33.1 33.1 POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 165 163 161 158 157 155 170 170 169 169 168 168 167 167 167 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 145 140 138 138 135 135 133 153 170 169 169 168 168 167 167 167 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -54.5 -54.7 -54.6 -54.2 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -53.6 -53.7 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 0.0 -0.2 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 8 8 6 8 7 9 7 11 8 10 4 7 3 9 6 700-500 MB RH 54 56 57 58 59 60 56 58 52 55 56 63 63 63 56 59 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 4 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 6 5 4 6 5 7 4 3 1 850 MB ENV VOR 20 13 28 35 14 20 -15 -22 -45 -4 0 -15 -39 -42 -92 -73 -92 200 MB DIV 31 -14 1 20 12 9 -11 3 -10 1 13 -11 16 -9 0 -18 -14 700-850 TADV -6 -2 1 0 -3 0 1 2 11 -5 6 3 10 5 5 7 0 LAND (KM) 326 372 409 400 361 260 196 77 -68 -186 -270 -361 -419 -455 -471 -479 -446 LAT (DEG N) 26.4 26.1 25.9 25.8 25.7 25.9 26.7 27.8 29.3 30.7 31.7 32.7 33.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 92.0 92.4 92.9 93.2 93.6 94.6 95.4 96.0 96.0 95.8 95.6 95.4 94.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 4 3 4 5 6 7 8 7 5 5 3 3 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 39 39 40 42 44 43 37 21 29 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 9. 15. 20. 25. 29. 34. 39. 44. 46. 48. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. -2. -4. -6. -5. -6. -4. -9. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 14. 19. 25. 25. 27. 30. 38. 43. 50. 50. 53. 57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 26.4 92.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL952022 INVEST 06/28/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.51 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.27 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 97.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.35 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.75 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.18 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 35.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.64 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 12.7% 8.2% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 8.8% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 5.8% 4.7% 2.9% 0.4% 3.7% 2.6% 3.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 6.2% 4.4% 3.4% 0.1% 1.3% 3.8% 1.1% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL952022 INVEST 06/28/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL952022 INVEST 06/28/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 32 38 44 50 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 30 36 42 48 38 29 26 25 25 25 25 25 25 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 25 31 37 43 33 24 21 20 20 20 20 20 20 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 23 29 35 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT