* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942022 10/26/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 34 44 64 69 58 42 30 26 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 31 32 55 60 49 33 21 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 26 28 42 44 38 32 29 31 36 40 46 54 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 35 34 32 29 24 27 17 16 17 22 17 18 20 17 15 6 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -9 -8 -4 -3 4 -2 2 -3 10 8 0 0 4 4 11 0 1 SHEAR DIR 259 253 259 260 266 251 308 280 219 146 152 164 156 152 156 188 155 SST (C) 25.8 25.0 23.8 16.1 14.2 10.4 8.7 10.8 10.2 10.1 10.0 10.5 10.2 9.3 9.1 10.8 12.2 POT. INT. (KT) 114 108 100 75 74 71 68 67 65 63 63 64 63 61 62 66 69 ADJ. POT. INT. 99 94 90 72 71 69 67 65 64 61 61 62 61 60 61 64 66 200 MB T (C) -57.4 -57.2 -57.2 -57.0 -57.0 -56.4 -55.3 -53.4 -49.7 -47.4 -46.9 -47.7 -48.4 -48.6 -49.4 -50.2 -49.6 200 MB VXT (C) -1.0 -1.1 -0.6 -1.2 -1.3 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.9 1.7 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 67 69 66 64 64 52 46 37 35 53 68 71 70 69 63 64 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 9 9 10 17 34 36 27 17 9 8 11 7 8 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR -71 -95 -96 -91 -68 1 -3 -9 94 129 142 182 220 187 126 186 271 200 MB DIV 24 26 51 40 44 26 12 7 28 43 21 18 26 16 2 -7 9 700-850 TADV 15 14 36 48 49 8 20 7 -56 -35 -24 -30 3 27 18 -16 -3 LAND (KM) 670 520 356 124 -26 -44 413 861 1197 1358 1469 1348 1301 1399 1466 1307 901 LAT (DEG N) 36.8 38.4 40.3 42.6 45.0 49.3 51.3 52.3 53.7 55.4 56.0 56.9 58.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.4 65.6 65.5 64.6 62.8 56.3 48.6 42.2 37.7 35.3 33.6 30.7 29.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 21 26 29 30 23 17 13 8 7 10 7 5 7 15 20 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 16 CX,CY: 0/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 1. -2. -3. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 8. 9. 10. 6. 1. -3. -6. -11. -14. -19. -24. -26. -25. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11. 9. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 1. 6. 25. 30. 20. 6. -5. -7. -3. -9. -9. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 19. 39. 44. 33. 17. 5. 1. 1. -10. -11. 1. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 36.8 65.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942022 INVEST 10/26/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 115.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.56 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.27 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.5% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.9% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942022 INVEST 10/26/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942022 INVEST 10/26/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 32 31 32 55 60 49 33 21 17 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 27 29 28 29 52 57 46 30 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 22 23 46 51 40 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT