* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942022 10/26/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 33 45 63 73 65 47 23 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 33 45 47 57 49 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 23 23 22 23 28 34 41 39 32 26 23 25 30 38 47 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 32 33 36 30 26 20 21 21 38 49 43 17 11 19 24 18 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -8 -8 -5 -2 -1 0 4 -6 1 3 1 2 2 0 -3 7 SHEAR DIR 256 260 257 264 267 258 294 319 312 307 299 288 255 233 226 221 221 SST (C) 25.4 25.7 26.1 23.1 18.5 12.7 9.1 12.1 17.3 16.9 17.1 15.1 12.6 10.7 8.1 7.8 8.1 POT. INT. (KT) 109 113 117 96 80 72 69 69 76 77 78 75 72 69 65 64 65 ADJ. POT. INT. 95 98 102 86 75 70 67 67 71 73 74 72 70 67 64 62 63 200 MB T (C) -57.6 -57.5 -57.4 -57.6 -57.6 -57.3 -57.1 -56.0 -54.2 -51.8 -50.6 -50.3 -51.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.9 -1.1 -1.1 -0.8 -1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 65 70 71 67 64 56 49 50 40 39 52 64 69 74 71 68 77 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 19 33 39 32 22 8 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -51 -71 -96 -88 -25 -27 -15 9 110 160 156 138 137 155 143 87 200 MB DIV 12 15 23 46 28 25 -4 39 -5 0 28 35 43 33 -20 -48 -58 700-850 TADV 2 13 23 27 43 13 27 44 26 43 58 42 -3 33 54 28 84 LAND (KM) 860 726 579 413 207 64 87 573 1007 1536 1198 499 341 599 951 1231 1472 LAT (DEG N) 35.0 36.3 37.9 39.8 42.0 46.4 48.9 48.9 48.0 46.4 46.2 50.1 56.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 65.0 65.2 65.3 65.0 64.0 59.3 51.9 45.2 39.3 32.6 24.1 16.7 13.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 18 21 25 29 25 20 22 27 30 31 29 22 15 11 14 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 13 CX,CY: 0/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 3. 2. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 7. 8. 9. 6. 0. -6. -14. -24. -28. -32. -38. -42. -42. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 14. 16. 17. 19. 19. 19. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -0. 7. 23. 34. 27. 13. -6. -9. -12. -15. -15. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 20. 38. 48. 40. 22. -1. -6. -10. -15. -17. -17. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 35.0 65.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942022 INVEST 10/26/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 111.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.32 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 37.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.62 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.4% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942022 INVEST 10/26/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942022 INVEST 10/26/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 30 33 45 47 57 49 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 31 43 45 55 47 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 38 40 50 42 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 30 32 42 34 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT