* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942022 10/25/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 29 31 36 46 66 69 51 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 29 31 36 46 59 62 43 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 23 22 22 22 23 29 39 43 38 29 23 20 20 21 25 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT SHEAR (KT) 26 30 31 34 33 20 23 27 36 52 55 58 61 37 20 16 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -7 -9 -7 5 -4 0 2 3 -1 -1 -8 4 0 1 -2 SHEAR DIR 250 259 259 258 265 282 267 311 321 332 324 319 280 267 249 212 241 SST (C) 25.3 25.4 25.6 26.1 22.9 15.0 12.6 10.4 18.8 21.3 20.6 20.2 19.3 16.3 15.4 15.0 6.5 POT. INT. (KT) 107 109 112 117 95 74 72 69 81 89 87 86 83 77 74 72 65 ADJ. POT. INT. 92 94 97 102 85 71 69 67 75 83 81 81 79 74 71 68 64 200 MB T (C) -57.3 -57.3 -57.3 -57.5 -57.6 -57.6 -57.5 -57.5 -56.8 -55.5 -55.5 -55.5 -56.3 -56.6 -57.9 -58.0 -58.8 200 MB VXT (C) -1.2 -1.0 -1.3 -1.3 -1.0 -1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 66 67 71 72 69 64 54 54 57 58 53 51 55 60 68 67 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 9 9 11 20 37 39 29 19 9 8 10 10 10 11 850 MB ENV VOR 15 -13 -37 -58 -86 -96 -6 -33 9 53 83 78 112 119 85 -18 -77 200 MB DIV 8 5 23 29 45 30 21 -3 9 -12 -5 39 5 54 49 28 -16 700-850 TADV 6 4 17 24 30 45 13 35 58 54 61 65 64 43 -1 -15 -2 LAND (KM) 1003 895 759 613 469 127 15 345 872 1449 1799 1186 548 17 -19 -101 184 LAT (DEG N) 33.6 34.6 35.9 37.5 39.3 43.7 47.3 47.5 45.2 41.7 38.9 38.1 39.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 64.9 65.1 65.3 65.3 65.0 62.2 55.6 48.2 42.0 36.3 30.0 22.8 15.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 15 17 21 27 28 24 25 28 28 29 31 31 26 21 16 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 10 CX,CY: 1/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 10. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 5. -1. -7. -16. -27. -38. -49. -60. -64. -63. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 17. 19. 21. 23. 23. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 8. 30. 34. 21. 6. -7. -10. -8. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -8. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 4. 6. 11. 21. 41. 44. 26. 5. -15. -24. -30. -31. -30. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 33.6 64.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942022 INVEST 10/25/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 102.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.57 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.35 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 50.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.50 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942022 INVEST 10/25/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942022 INVEST 10/25/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 29 31 36 46 59 62 43 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 25 28 30 35 45 58 61 42 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 26 31 41 54 57 38 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 17 22 32 45 48 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT