* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942022 10/25/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 32 34 35 38 38 35 34 32 31 30 28 27 28 30 33 V (KT) LAND 30 30 32 34 35 38 38 31 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 31 31 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 18 20 23 31 25 25 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -4 -6 -4 -7 -1 0 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 238 254 250 241 245 256 239 222 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.5 25.7 25.6 25.4 25.6 22.3 14.0 9.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 119 111 111 110 112 91 72 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 102 96 97 97 98 82 70 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.0 -57.2 -57.3 -57.2 -56.9 -56.7 -55.9 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.6 -1.0 -0.9 -1.0 -1.4 -1.1 -1.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 4 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 57 62 63 63 64 68 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 21 24 5 -29 -57 -43 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 9 23 -3 8 -4 32 52 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 4 12 6 1 14 38 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1143 1046 954 838 699 320 108 -29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 64.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 12 15 16 19 26 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 829 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 9. 8. 6. 6. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 4. -0. -5. -8. -13. -17. -20. -26. -29. -30. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 14. 16. 19. 20. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 5. 8. 8. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -2. -0. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 31.4 64.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942022 INVEST 10/25/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.33 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.91 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 157.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.78 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.29 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.34 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 87.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.12 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 7.0% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.7% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 2.9% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942022 INVEST 10/25/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942022 INVEST 10/25/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 32 34 35 38 38 31 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 34 37 37 30 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 32 32 25 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 24 24 17 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT