* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942022 10/24/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 36 39 42 43 41 38 36 33 25 18 18 18 21 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 36 39 42 37 37 33 32 28 20 N/A N/A N/A 16 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 32 33 34 30 34 34 38 42 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 17 22 22 29 29 24 30 19 20 19 21 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -8 -5 -6 -4 2 2 8 9 9 23 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 206 232 250 237 234 253 244 253 258 283 271 221 199 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.4 26.1 25.7 25.6 25.5 26.0 21.1 14.0 10.8 6.6 8.9 7.4 3.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 115 111 110 110 115 86 73 71 69 69 70 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 106 101 96 95 94 99 79 71 70 68 68 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.1 -57.1 -57.1 -57.1 -57.0 -56.8 -56.8 -56.6 -56.1 -55.0 -52.7 -49.3 -48.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.5 -0.7 -1.0 -1.3 -0.9 -1.0 -1.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 53 57 61 64 66 66 69 61 55 49 56 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 8 8 7 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 37 34 38 26 -39 -60 -35 -10 -2 37 127 209 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 53 9 16 -1 1 14 63 59 43 23 33 48 -139 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 5 8 11 2 16 29 31 43 10 -6 -66 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1214 1063 949 845 770 588 276 -30 18 341 879 1346 1058 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.5 31.8 32.4 33.2 34.1 36.5 39.7 44.2 48.7 51.7 54.7 60.0 67.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 63.6 65.2 66.2 67.0 67.5 68.4 68.0 65.1 58.9 50.5 42.7 37.7 37.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 12 10 10 11 14 20 29 32 29 27 34 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 886 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. 2. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. -1. -5. -8. -11. -14. -23. -33. -38. -39. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 12. 14. 14. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 13. 11. 8. 6. 3. -5. -12. -12. -12. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 31.5 63.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942022 INVEST 10/24/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.40 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.37 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 172.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.76 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.20 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.34 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 78.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.22 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.6% 3.4% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.5% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 1.6% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942022 INVEST 10/24/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942022 INVEST 10/24/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 34 36 39 42 37 37 33 32 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 34 37 40 35 35 31 30 26 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 33 36 31 31 27 26 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 25 28 23 23 19 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT