* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942022 10/24/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 38 42 45 47 48 78 81 84 67 49 40 35 32 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 38 42 45 47 45 75 78 81 64 46 37 33 29 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 34 36 37 38 43 55 61 61 56 53 54 56 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 18 19 16 24 26 24 22 21 28 37 53 33 20 15 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 -1 -5 -1 -1 -1 2 11 3 4 -3 4 7 5 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 290 214 232 242 228 247 250 248 251 229 205 209 201 205 208 183 158 SST (C) 26.0 25.7 25.5 25.6 25.4 26.0 21.0 14.3 10.3 6.3 7.3 4.3 4.8 4.8 3.6 6.1 8.4 POT. INT. (KT) 117 113 110 111 109 115 85 72 71 69 70 67 59 63 65 66 66 ADJ. POT. INT. 106 100 96 96 93 98 77 70 69 69 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A 65 65 200 MB T (C) -57.3 -57.3 -57.2 -57.2 -57.1 -56.6 -56.4 -56.1 -55.4 -53.9 -51.3 -48.7 -47.6 -47.3 -48.5 -48.8 -48.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.3 -0.6 -0.9 -1.0 -1.0 -0.7 -0.7 0.2 1.0 1.9 2.9 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.1 2.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 45 46 50 53 56 57 60 66 65 52 55 72 62 57 52 52 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 9 8 9 8 7 7 9 31 33 37 30 22 17 15 12 850 MB ENV VOR 8 10 16 14 16 -38 -63 -70 44 89 192 281 247 177 116 138 130 200 MB DIV 9 37 9 20 -14 -8 40 36 69 25 57 -2 -50 -66 -3 14 20 700-850 TADV 5 1 7 7 9 5 13 46 36 19 -25 -121 -77 -26 -6 -1 -4 LAND (KM) 1307 1148 1001 874 786 593 292 85 134 15 619 742 558 591 826 936 1160 LAT (DEG N) 31.8 32.2 32.8 33.6 34.5 36.5 39.3 43.2 47.9 52.2 57.2 63.3 65.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 62.0 64.0 65.4 66.5 67.2 68.3 68.5 66.8 62.3 55.5 49.1 48.0 49.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 15 13 11 10 12 17 25 30 31 32 23 3 11 17 18 17 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 792 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 3. -1. -4. -7. -12. -22. -32. -36. -36. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. 25. 27. 31. 20. 9. 2. -2. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 12. 15. 17. 18. 48. 51. 54. 37. 19. 10. 5. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 31.8 62.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942022 INVEST 10/24/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.60 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 207.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.72 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.31 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.34 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 79.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.20 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 6.3% 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 5.0% 4.7% 1.6% 0.2% 1.7% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 3.8% 3.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942022 INVEST 10/24/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942022 INVEST 10/24/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 36 38 42 45 47 45 75 78 81 64 46 37 33 29 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 35 39 42 44 42 72 75 78 61 43 34 30 26 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 34 37 39 37 67 70 73 56 38 29 25 21 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 26 29 31 29 59 62 65 48 30 21 17 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT