* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942022 10/24/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 36 38 43 47 48 49 67 75 85 57 38 33 32 33 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 36 38 43 47 48 37 35 41 50 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 35 37 39 39 34 33 42 50 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 6 9 19 17 20 25 26 25 38 42 39 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 -1 -4 -2 -8 0 7 10 11 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 191 280 206 234 238 225 244 243 235 209 201 181 195 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.0 25.9 25.4 25.3 25.3 24.0 15.9 13.3 10.2 6.4 2.9 3.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 116 114 109 108 108 99 74 73 71 70 68 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 115 104 101 95 94 93 87 70 70 70 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.1 -57.1 -57.0 -57.0 -57.2 -57.0 -56.9 -56.7 -55.8 -54.1 -51.3 -48.7 -45.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 -0.6 -0.8 -0.8 -0.4 -1.0 -0.6 0.5 1.4 3.6 1.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 45 46 50 53 58 59 63 74 66 64 72 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 7 23 32 42 29 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 4 1 7 3 -10 -73 -71 34 45 155 282 184 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -9 21 42 3 21 -20 16 72 61 56 73 -34 -158 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 5 1 4 10 -1 9 24 -10 -22 -82 -80 -115 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1425 1307 1165 1028 900 686 415 129 -85 -170 411 501 408 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.5 31.8 32.4 33.0 33.9 35.8 38.1 41.7 46.6 51.9 57.6 64.3 68.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 59.8 62.0 63.7 65.0 66.1 67.6 68.6 68.4 66.0 60.9 54.8 52.4 53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 17 14 13 12 11 15 22 29 32 34 29 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 4. 0. -4. -12. -19. -29. -39. -44. -46. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -7. 13. 26. 39. 20. 9. 8. 7. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 17. 18. 19. 37. 45. 55. 27. 8. 3. 2. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 31.5 59.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942022 INVEST 10/24/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.68 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 211.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.72 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.32 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.37 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 27.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.73 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 2% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 5.3% 4.3% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 6.6% 5.6% 2.0% 0.4% 1.4% 0.6% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 4.0% 3.3% 1.4% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942022 INVEST 10/24/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942022 INVEST 10/24/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 36 38 43 47 48 37 35 41 50 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 36 41 45 46 35 33 39 48 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 31 36 40 41 30 28 34 43 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 27 31 32 21 19 25 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT