* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942022 10/24/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 40 47 49 49 50 50 49 47 43 40 39 40 45 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 40 47 49 49 37 32 33 30 26 23 23 24 28 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 35 38 39 39 33 31 35 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 5 6 11 21 16 25 22 26 28 24 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 0 0 -2 -5 2 2 5 15 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 169 174 245 229 232 242 247 252 242 243 231 223 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 26.5 26.1 26.1 25.3 25.4 22.5 15.9 13.2 9.4 5.9 4.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 122 117 117 109 109 91 73 72 70 70 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 118 110 104 103 96 94 80 70 70 69 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.2 -57.3 -57.3 -57.2 -57.3 -57.5 -56.8 -56.6 -55.8 -55.2 -52.7 -50.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.9 -1.0 -0.5 -1.1 -1.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 44 44 44 45 53 52 58 67 72 59 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 9 10 9 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -17 -17 -18 -20 -23 -81 -98 -25 17 82 222 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 32 1 16 35 0 -20 -31 49 52 59 51 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -8 2 7 0 4 8 9 20 40 88 -63 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1521 1382 1257 1111 965 678 398 129 -124 -139 300 640 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.5 32.0 32.6 33.3 34.1 36.1 38.4 41.7 46.5 51.5 56.7 64.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 57.2 59.5 61.5 63.1 64.6 66.8 68.1 68.4 66.5 62.0 55.8 49.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 19 16 15 15 12 14 21 27 30 35 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 20 CX,CY: -18/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 474 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 5. 1. -2. -7. -11. -16. -22. -25. -26. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 12. 14. 15. 15. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 17. 19. 19. 20. 20. 19. 17. 13. 10. 9. 10. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 31.5 57.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942022 INVEST 10/24/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.70 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 221.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.71 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.41 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.22 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.91 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 8.4% 6.6% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.9% 9.5% 8.9% 4.7% 1.0% 2.7% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 6.0% 5.2% 3.6% 0.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942022 INVEST 10/24/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942022 INVEST 10/24/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 37 40 47 49 49 37 32 33 30 26 23 23 24 28 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 37 44 46 46 34 29 30 27 23 20 20 21 25 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 39 41 41 29 24 25 22 18 15 15 16 20 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 30 32 32 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT