* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942022 10/23/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 37 40 47 51 50 51 52 51 49 44 41 40 41 45 V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 37 40 47 51 50 51 38 30 32 26 24 23 24 28 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 35 38 40 40 39 35 30 40 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 10 6 7 12 23 21 22 22 29 26 22 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 2 0 0 -5 0 -3 4 5 5 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 160 165 165 230 227 249 246 259 243 248 251 228 216 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.6 26.9 26.1 26.0 26.1 25.3 24.0 17.9 13.1 8.7 6.6 6.2 4.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 126 118 116 117 109 99 76 71 69 69 71 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 112 115 106 104 103 95 86 70 69 68 68 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.2 -57.3 -57.4 -57.3 -57.3 -57.7 -57.3 -56.8 -56.4 -55.8 -54.6 -52.0 -48.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.8 -0.5 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.7 -0.9 -0.6 -0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 43 43 43 43 49 53 53 60 69 67 59 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 9 9 10 9 10 9 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -20 -25 -21 -24 -36 -59 -112 -102 6 35 114 260 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 23 39 -6 16 38 22 -35 9 54 34 64 66 -61 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -10 -5 4 7 0 14 0 17 38 54 93 -39 104 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1645 1494 1348 1220 1075 765 492 197 10 23 -35 653 667 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.3 31.9 32.5 33.1 33.9 35.7 37.8 40.6 44.6 49.3 54.0 59.9 68.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 54.7 56.9 59.0 61.0 62.7 65.6 67.2 68.1 67.3 63.8 58.3 51.7 46.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 19 18 17 16 14 13 16 24 28 30 39 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 19 CX,CY: -16/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 474 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 9. 9. 10. 8. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 4. 2. -2. -6. -10. -16. -21. -24. -25. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 10. 17. 21. 20. 21. 22. 21. 19. 14. 11. 10. 11. 15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 31.3 54.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942022 INVEST 10/23/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.76 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 220.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.71 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.42 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 9.0% 6.9% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.6% 8.0% 8.0% 4.1% 0.7% 1.7% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 5.7% 5.0% 3.4% 0.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942022 INVEST 10/23/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942022 INVEST 10/23/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 34 37 40 47 51 50 51 38 30 32 26 24 23 24 28 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 38 45 49 48 49 36 28 30 24 22 21 22 26 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 39 43 42 43 30 22 24 18 16 15 16 20 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 30 34 33 34 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT