* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942022 10/23/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 36 39 45 50 51 50 51 50 46 43 37 28 27 30 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 36 39 45 50 51 50 51 50 46 43 37 28 27 30 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 35 38 40 40 40 41 43 46 46 42 37 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 9 13 13 10 14 22 24 21 21 28 38 56 48 34 36 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 2 3 1 -2 0 -3 -3 -1 -4 -9 -7 0 -5 -7 SHEAR DIR 38 85 104 126 139 202 254 257 279 274 285 308 339 359 22 52 53 SST (C) 27.2 27.7 26.9 27.0 26.8 25.9 25.4 24.8 21.5 14.4 12.2 14.3 22.6 23.8 25.2 25.9 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 129 135 126 127 125 115 110 104 86 71 70 72 96 103 111 114 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 116 122 113 114 112 102 95 89 77 68 68 70 88 95 101 101 99 200 MB T (C) -57.3 -57.3 -57.3 -57.2 -57.3 -57.3 -57.6 -57.1 -56.9 -56.7 -56.9 -57.6 -57.6 -57.1 -57.4 -57.7 -57.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.5 -0.8 -0.7 -0.4 -0.4 -0.1 -0.9 -1.1 -0.2 -0.5 -1.0 -1.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.8 -0.4 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 5 5 6 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 44 45 45 45 45 45 48 53 51 52 57 62 60 57 54 50 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 6 6 6 5 9 10 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -19 -31 -28 -23 -36 -51 -83 -129 -137 -114 -68 -46 -57 -42 -29 -35 200 MB DIV 19 16 33 18 -9 21 9 -56 -21 8 -47 -20 -20 -30 -30 -43 -42 700-850 TADV 3 -3 -3 0 3 3 16 6 19 18 4 22 4 4 3 1 -1 LAND (KM) 1868 1779 1661 1541 1404 1125 789 540 290 88 158 163 759 1426 1998 2126 2048 LAT (DEG N) 30.0 30.7 31.3 31.8 32.3 33.8 36.0 38.3 40.9 43.9 46.2 46.2 43.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 50.6 52.4 54.2 56.1 58.1 61.8 64.5 65.4 65.2 62.8 57.7 51.1 44.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 17 17 18 16 14 12 15 20 22 25 29 29 21 13 8 HEAT CONTENT 15 13 3 6 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 12. 13. 13. 11. 10. 9. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 5. 2. -0. -4. -9. -18. -28. -34. -37. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 13. 15. 17. 19. 20. 21. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -7. -8. -10. -6. -4. -11. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 15. 20. 21. 20. 21. 20. 16. 13. 7. -2. -3. -0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 30.0 50.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942022 INVEST 10/23/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.72 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 8.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 206.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.72 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.43 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.48 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.21 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 91.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.08 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 9.6% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.8% 9.3% 8.6% 6.1% 1.5% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 6.4% 5.2% 2.0% 0.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942022 INVEST 10/23/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942022 INVEST 10/23/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 36 39 45 50 51 50 51 50 46 43 37 28 27 30 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 37 43 48 49 48 49 48 44 41 35 26 25 28 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 38 43 44 43 44 43 39 36 30 21 20 23 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 29 34 35 34 35 34 30 27 21 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT