* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942022 10/23/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 38 44 50 53 54 52 49 52 56 54 58 63 60 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 38 44 50 53 54 52 49 52 49 47 51 56 53 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 32 33 36 39 41 43 43 43 47 46 51 57 58 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SUBT SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 5 8 13 11 11 18 20 30 18 31 38 49 44 37 19 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 1 1 0 4 1 0 -3 -4 -3 -7 -4 -13 1 -5 6 15 SHEAR DIR 291 56 88 105 126 157 238 261 274 266 273 276 280 280 290 250 169 SST (C) 27.1 27.2 27.7 27.1 26.9 26.0 25.9 25.5 24.1 20.8 14.4 11.8 10.1 14.0 13.6 14.9 14.7 POT. INT. (KT) 127 129 135 127 125 116 115 110 99 83 71 69 69 74 73 73 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 116 120 114 112 103 100 93 85 75 68 67 68 71 71 69 70 200 MB T (C) -57.1 -57.2 -57.2 -57.2 -57.3 -57.3 -57.3 -57.4 -56.9 -56.9 -57.0 -57.5 -57.9 -56.9 -54.3 -49.6 -47.3 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 -0.4 -0.8 -0.8 -0.5 0.0 -0.3 -0.9 -0.4 -0.2 -0.8 -1.5 -1.2 0.4 1.1 0.4 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 5 5 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 43 46 46 48 48 48 48 55 54 55 57 62 64 55 41 42 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 7 8 8 9 10 9 8 6 5 9 17 22 30 36 33 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -18 -16 -32 -27 -25 -53 -66 -95 -119 -112 -62 -5 16 40 163 245 200 MB DIV -13 13 11 25 36 7 7 -10 -38 5 -2 37 11 35 9 17 61 700-850 TADV 4 7 2 -2 -2 3 6 9 7 10 15 -12 -19 -15 7 -60 -147 LAND (KM) 1992 1892 1802 1698 1589 1300 1027 738 524 270 91 119 82 704 1428 1057 519 LAT (DEG N) 29.1 29.8 30.5 31.1 31.6 32.9 34.6 36.7 38.6 41.1 43.9 46.6 48.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 48.8 50.5 52.1 53.7 55.5 59.2 62.3 64.3 65.3 65.0 62.7 58.1 51.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 15 16 17 16 15 11 11 14 19 22 25 31 31 24 26 HEAT CONTENT 11 14 16 5 5 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 13. 14. 15. 13. 11. 9. 7. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 4. 1. -3. -8. -16. -26. -33. -34. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. 14. 16. 17. 17. 16. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -2. -3. -7. -10. -5. 5. 10. 19. 25. 20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 20. 23. 24. 22. 19. 22. 26. 24. 28. 33. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 29.1 48.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942022 INVEST 10/23/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.75 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 194.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.74 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.45 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.48 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 74.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.26 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 11.0% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.5% 15.6% 12.8% 8.4% 3.1% 4.8% 1.1% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 8.9% 6.9% 2.8% 1.0% 4.4% 0.4% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942022 INVEST 10/23/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942022 INVEST 10/23/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 35 38 44 50 53 54 52 49 52 49 47 51 56 53 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 36 42 48 51 52 50 47 50 47 45 49 54 51 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 37 43 46 47 45 42 45 42 40 44 49 46 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 29 35 38 39 37 34 37 34 32 36 41 38 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT