* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942022 10/22/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 32 34 40 46 51 54 53 51 49 50 52 47 43 52 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 32 34 40 46 51 54 53 51 46 40 42 37 33 42 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 29 29 32 35 38 40 41 39 38 37 44 48 50 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 6 8 11 8 14 23 26 30 23 26 22 37 42 50 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 1 1 0 4 1 -2 2 -2 -2 -4 -1 -3 1 -2 2 SHEAR DIR 251 303 56 100 104 136 201 253 253 275 274 282 283 313 328 350 350 SST (C) 26.9 27.1 27.2 27.6 27.1 27.1 26.0 25.6 23.7 21.0 14.3 11.5 9.7 13.3 15.2 17.9 17.9 POT. INT. (KT) 124 127 129 134 128 128 116 112 96 84 71 69 69 72 74 77 77 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 115 116 120 114 114 102 96 83 75 67 67 67 69 70 72 72 200 MB T (C) -57.2 -57.2 -57.2 -57.3 -57.3 -57.5 -57.5 -57.7 -57.5 -57.2 -57.6 -57.3 -58.1 -56.9 -56.0 -56.8 -57.6 200 MB VXT (C) -1.0 -0.4 -0.4 -0.8 -0.6 -0.3 0.1 -1.0 -1.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.7 -0.8 -0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 38 42 44 48 47 50 49 51 56 55 55 65 72 72 61 50 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 9 14 16 19 28 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -16 -26 -26 -39 -32 -55 -43 -56 -107 -141 -124 -118 -49 -4 26 57 200 MB DIV -31 -10 12 10 21 2 25 11 -32 -8 8 -25 23 -5 16 -7 -2 700-850 TADV -1 0 7 4 -4 3 3 13 6 20 26 11 -13 -40 20 66 23 LAND (KM) 2071 1984 1872 1781 1671 1403 1111 809 551 290 78 63 70 646 1225 1606 1249 LAT (DEG N) 28.7 29.2 30.0 30.7 31.4 32.6 34.2 36.4 38.6 41.0 44.0 47.0 48.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 47.0 48.6 50.3 51.9 53.6 57.4 60.8 63.4 64.5 64.5 62.8 58.7 52.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 16 16 16 16 17 16 14 11 13 18 23 25 27 26 21 21 HEAT CONTENT 9 11 14 15 4 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 13. 15. 15. 13. 11. 9. 7. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 5. 2. -2. -6. -10. -17. -24. -30. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 16. 18. 19. 20. 21. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. -7. 0. 2. 4. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 2. 4. 10. 16. 21. 24. 23. 21. 19. 20. 22. 17. 13. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 28.7 47.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942022 INVEST 10/22/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.81 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 202.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.73 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.53 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.48 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.14 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 90.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.09 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 9.0% 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 7.6% 5.3% 1.7% 0.7% 2.0% 0.8% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 5.6% 4.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942022 INVEST 10/22/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942022 INVEST 10/22/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 30 32 34 40 46 51 54 53 51 46 40 42 37 33 42 18HR AGO 30 29 29 31 33 39 45 50 53 52 50 45 39 41 36 32 41 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 36 42 47 50 49 47 42 36 38 33 29 38 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 28 34 39 42 41 39 34 28 30 25 21 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT