* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942022 10/22/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 30 32 34 39 45 50 55 55 52 48 52 51 39 30 27 V (KT) LAND 30 29 30 32 34 39 45 50 55 55 52 42 43 35 23 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 28 28 30 33 37 41 44 43 42 40 37 38 40 40 Storm Type SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 6 9 11 11 6 20 20 34 30 41 30 41 39 41 41 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 1 -2 0 2 2 1 0 -1 -5 0 -11 1 -4 2 7 9 SHEAR DIR 251 216 241 95 116 120 189 233 259 260 277 269 268 280 305 324 319 SST (C) 26.9 26.9 27.1 27.2 27.7 27.0 25.7 25.9 25.4 23.4 17.9 14.1 11.3 9.0 14.6 14.7 14.7 POT. INT. (KT) 125 125 128 129 135 127 113 114 109 94 75 71 69 69 75 75 74 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 113 116 117 122 113 101 100 93 81 70 68 68 68 72 72 71 200 MB T (C) -57.4 -57.1 -57.0 -57.3 -57.5 -57.5 -57.6 -57.6 -57.8 -57.1 -57.0 -57.0 -57.5 -57.1 -55.5 -53.9 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) -0.9 -1.2 -0.5 -0.5 -0.7 -0.3 -0.1 -0.8 -0.9 0.2 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 35 39 44 46 47 47 48 49 54 57 59 63 69 71 67 61 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 6 5 11 15 11 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -6 -6 -17 -18 -23 -34 -50 -57 -92 -127 -114 -92 -53 -52 -37 -9 200 MB DIV 0 -18 0 9 19 17 6 6 -9 -14 0 14 24 11 13 -6 6 700-850 TADV 8 2 3 5 0 -4 0 6 8 13 15 30 -29 -32 13 95 99 LAND (KM) 2149 2088 2001 1879 1790 1531 1255 973 684 462 223 -5 22 123 791 1510 920 LAT (DEG N) 28.3 28.5 29.0 29.9 30.6 31.9 33.1 34.9 37.0 39.0 41.5 44.6 47.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 45.6 47.2 48.9 50.7 52.4 56.1 59.9 62.9 64.8 65.8 65.7 63.5 58.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 17 17 17 17 17 14 11 11 16 19 24 27 33 31 30 HEAT CONTENT 11 9 11 15 14 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 16. 17. 15. 13. 11. 9. 7. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 2. -3. -8. -13. -21. -28. -32. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 15. 17. 19. 19. 19. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -6. -8. -12. -14. -5. -1. -7. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 2. 4. 9. 15. 20. 25. 25. 22. 18. 22. 21. 9. -0. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 28.3 45.6 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942022 INVEST 10/22/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.71 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 196.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.74 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.49 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.15 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 10.4% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 5.1% 3.4% 1.2% 0.4% 2.1% 1.0% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 5.2% 3.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942022 INVEST 10/22/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942022 INVEST 10/22/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 30 32 34 39 45 50 55 55 52 42 43 35 23 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 34 39 45 50 55 55 52 42 43 35 23 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 35 41 46 51 51 48 38 39 31 19 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 27 33 38 43 43 40 30 31 23 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT