* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942022 10/22/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 39 41 46 51 57 62 65 62 61 57 52 46 34 40 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 39 41 46 51 57 62 65 62 61 43 37 34 21 28 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 36 37 40 44 49 54 57 55 50 38 36 37 40 42 Storm Type SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 14 10 10 11 5 13 17 27 27 21 29 48 51 48 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -1 0 -2 2 0 3 0 -3 -4 -3 0 1 0 8 14 18 SHEAR DIR 233 238 208 214 114 129 164 222 251 249 273 262 251 258 278 302 313 SST (C) 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.4 27.0 26.7 26.0 25.0 25.7 21.9 15.2 14.5 11.4 9.9 15.8 15.9 POT. INT. (KT) 126 126 126 128 132 127 124 116 106 111 87 71 72 71 72 78 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 114 115 117 120 115 111 102 92 94 77 67 69 69 70 75 74 200 MB T (C) -57.6 -57.4 -57.1 -57.0 -57.3 -57.5 -57.4 -57.3 -57.5 -56.5 -56.5 -56.7 -56.6 -56.4 -55.3 -54.6 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 -0.9 -1.2 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.4 -0.2 -0.8 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.9 -0.8 -0.9 -0.4 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 5 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 33 36 38 41 45 45 47 46 51 58 59 59 66 73 68 61 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 9 8 8 7 7 8 8 8 9 7 6 6 7 10 5 13 850 MB ENV VOR 1 3 1 -1 -6 -12 -20 -24 -38 -51 -87 -92 -62 -56 -59 -36 0 200 MB DIV -4 6 -8 8 16 30 -11 10 10 -15 -12 24 20 52 4 11 -2 700-850 TADV 4 6 0 0 4 -6 6 0 10 4 12 4 -9 -49 -93 5 65 LAND (KM) 2179 2144 2080 1982 1884 1655 1393 1121 827 582 353 182 -52 -60 364 1184 1134 LAT (DEG N) 28.4 28.3 28.5 29.1 29.8 31.1 32.0 33.4 35.2 37.1 39.3 42.0 45.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 44.2 45.8 47.6 49.4 51.4 55.1 59.2 62.7 65.3 66.7 67.2 66.4 63.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 16 18 18 18 18 15 12 10 12 16 22 28 35 38 36 HEAT CONTENT 8 9 12 11 20 7 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 15 CX,CY: -13/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 14. 14. 13. 10. 8. 6. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. -0. -3. -7. -14. -23. -29. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 14. 16. 18. 19. 19. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -12. -13. -14. -13. -9. -15. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 16. 22. 27. 30. 27. 26. 22. 17. 11. -1. 5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 28.4 44.2 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942022 INVEST 10/22/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.65 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 246.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.68 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.0 28.3 to 146.3 0.45 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.15 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 9.3% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 5.6% 3.8% 1.8% 0.6% 1.9% 1.2% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 5.1% 3.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942022 INVEST 10/22/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942022 INVEST 10/22/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 37 39 41 46 51 57 62 65 62 61 43 37 34 21 28 18HR AGO 35 34 35 37 39 44 49 55 60 63 60 59 41 35 32 19 26 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 35 40 45 51 56 59 56 55 37 31 28 15 22 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 32 37 43 48 51 48 47 29 23 20 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT