* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942022 10/22/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 39 41 45 50 56 61 63 61 58 52 46 50 43 36 V (KT) LAND 35 36 38 39 41 45 50 56 61 63 61 58 52 38 36 33 25 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 36 37 38 41 44 48 52 56 56 52 45 36 36 38 37 Storm Type SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 8 12 8 18 8 7 20 29 37 26 22 33 48 40 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 3 0 0 2 2 0 -1 -6 -4 -3 1 -2 2 17 12 SHEAR DIR 268 228 214 177 178 120 121 195 248 262 273 285 279 271 282 294 316 SST (C) 26.9 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.5 27.6 26.8 25.7 25.2 25.8 21.4 15.8 14.4 12.0 12.0 15.3 POT. INT. (KT) 125 126 126 128 128 133 134 124 113 107 112 85 72 72 72 74 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 113 114 116 117 119 120 110 99 92 94 76 68 70 70 72 75 200 MB T (C) -57.2 -57.4 -57.2 -57.0 -56.9 -57.4 -57.5 -57.4 -57.3 -57.3 -56.9 -56.9 -56.8 -56.5 -55.6 -55.1 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 -0.8 -1.0 -0.6 -0.6 -0.4 -0.2 -0.5 -0.6 0.2 -0.6 -0.6 -0.8 -0.1 -0.7 -1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 34 34 35 38 41 45 46 47 47 55 57 59 61 70 80 75 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 9 9 8 7 7 8 8 8 7 6 4 2 11 11 8 850 MB ENV VOR 12 8 8 0 0 -12 -11 -22 -43 -69 -84 -99 -125 -61 -48 -87 -49 200 MB DIV -43 -1 3 -9 0 26 5 6 -4 -6 -31 1 11 22 10 0 -15 700-850 TADV -6 4 6 1 2 3 0 4 6 5 6 11 29 28 -15 -17 38 LAND (KM) 2206 2194 2138 2067 1980 1778 1554 1335 1070 819 601 358 220 -50 -33 492 1405 LAT (DEG N) 28.6 28.2 28.3 28.6 29.1 30.5 31.3 32.1 33.3 34.9 36.6 38.8 41.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.8 44.4 46.0 47.7 49.6 53.2 56.9 60.7 64.0 66.3 67.6 68.1 67.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 15 16 17 16 17 16 14 11 10 12 17 24 32 39 41 HEAT CONTENT 6 9 9 13 12 10 13 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 15. 13. 10. 8. 6. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 6. 3. -2. -6. -8. -14. -21. -26. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 14. 15. 17. 18. 19. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -14. -17. -20. -8. -8. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 10. 15. 21. 26. 28. 26. 23. 17. 11. 15. 8. 1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 28.6 42.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942022 INVEST 10/22/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.71 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 252.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.68 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.40 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.43 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.09 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 8.4% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 7.6% 5.5% 2.9% 1.1% 3.2% 2.3% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 5.4% 4.0% 1.0% 0.4% 1.1% 0.8% 0.4% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942022 INVEST 10/22/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942022 INVEST 10/22/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 38 39 41 45 50 56 61 63 61 58 52 38 36 33 25 18HR AGO 35 34 36 37 39 43 48 54 59 61 59 56 50 36 34 31 23 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 34 38 43 49 54 56 54 51 45 31 29 26 18 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 31 36 42 47 49 47 44 38 24 22 19 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT