* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942022 10/21/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 41 42 46 50 55 61 64 64 60 55 51 50 45 46 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 41 42 46 50 55 61 64 64 60 55 51 50 45 46 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 40 42 45 48 52 56 59 59 56 48 45 45 46 46 Storm Type SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 7 5 10 13 11 6 14 28 34 25 27 41 53 62 50 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -3 1 3 0 1 0 5 0 -7 -4 2 -2 -8 -4 -7 0 SHEAR DIR 238 281 196 182 169 105 127 151 248 260 260 272 263 272 274 293 313 SST (C) 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.7 27.5 26.8 25.7 25.3 25.8 24.5 18.6 14.4 12.4 13.8 19.5 POT. INT. (KT) 126 126 126 126 128 136 133 125 113 108 112 102 77 71 70 73 85 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 113 113 115 118 124 121 112 99 94 95 87 71 68 68 71 80 200 MB T (C) -57.7 -57.2 -57.4 -57.2 -57.1 -57.5 -57.5 -57.3 -57.3 -57.3 -56.7 -56.3 -56.4 -56.4 -57.4 -57.6 -57.8 200 MB VXT (C) -0.4 0.1 0.0 -0.9 -0.9 -0.6 -0.5 -0.4 0.1 -0.7 -0.4 -0.2 -0.6 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 5 4 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 38 35 33 35 37 42 43 46 46 51 56 58 61 67 68 63 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 10 9 8 7 7 8 8 7 8 6 5 5 9 13 17 850 MB ENV VOR 10 5 2 0 0 -9 -18 -27 -30 -57 -59 -102 -97 -81 -115 -146 -153 200 MB DIV -41 -45 8 0 -8 22 9 -4 39 0 -23 -20 27 12 20 -27 -29 700-850 TADV -13 -5 6 3 -4 3 -4 4 0 6 7 15 19 22 0 -20 -19 LAND (KM) 2201 2189 2155 2106 2028 1858 1629 1392 1138 865 681 444 237 31 47 89 804 LAT (DEG N) 29.3 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.9 30.0 30.9 31.7 32.7 34.2 35.8 37.9 40.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 41.1 42.7 44.3 46.0 48.0 52.1 56.1 60.2 63.8 66.4 67.8 68.3 67.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 14 16 18 19 18 17 14 12 10 11 15 19 24 30 34 HEAT CONTENT 13 6 7 9 15 22 13 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ -6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 16. 14. 11. 9. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 6. 2. -2. -6. -12. -20. -28. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 15. 16. 18. 19. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -8. -9. -11. -12. -15. -17. -17. -11. -8. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 15. 20. 26. 29. 29. 25. 20. 16. 15. 10. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 29.3 41.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942022 INVEST 10/21/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.81 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.07 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 244.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.68 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.37 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.43 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.06 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 97.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.02 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 11.1% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.1% 9.9% 8.6% 4.7% 1.4% 4.7% 2.1% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 7.1% 5.5% 1.6% 0.5% 1.6% 0.7% 0.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942022 INVEST 10/21/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942022 INVEST 10/21/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 39 41 42 46 50 55 61 64 64 60 55 51 50 45 46 18HR AGO 35 34 36 38 39 43 47 52 58 61 61 57 52 48 47 42 43 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 34 38 42 47 53 56 56 52 47 43 42 37 38 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 30 34 39 45 48 48 44 39 35 34 29 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT