* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942022 09/02/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 25 26 26 25 21 18 15 16 17 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 25 26 26 25 21 18 15 16 17 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 27 26 25 22 20 19 20 22 24 26 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 2 4 10 15 23 33 39 35 24 16 10 10 20 29 29 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 6 3 2 2 -2 -4 -4 -4 -6 2 0 0 0 2 0 SHEAR DIR 65 308 267 276 285 278 260 262 268 274 290 264 260 258 269 267 260 SST (C) 26.0 25.9 25.6 25.4 25.2 25.0 25.0 25.1 25.0 25.2 24.8 24.6 24.0 23.8 23.9 24.0 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 113 112 109 107 106 104 105 105 105 107 104 102 97 96 97 98 101 ADJ. POT. INT. 103 102 99 98 96 94 95 94 93 94 92 90 85 84 86 88 92 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.7 -54.4 -55.0 -55.5 -55.6 -55.7 -55.8 -56.0 -56.0 -55.8 -55.5 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 5 6 5 6 6 6 4 4 3 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 64 62 60 62 61 60 58 55 56 57 57 55 53 45 41 37 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 9 9 9 8 7 7 5 4 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 106 87 67 49 34 19 -3 -42 -101 -144 -167 -173 -158 -129 -105 -79 -64 200 MB DIV 23 24 9 -9 -14 8 5 10 3 -1 9 -12 0 0 -18 -28 -31 700-850 TADV 6 5 5 5 6 8 9 5 13 14 7 0 -6 -21 -20 -16 -15 LAND (KM) 1104 1165 1219 1266 1316 1421 1519 1603 1631 1591 1454 1235 1014 867 795 807 864 LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.7 20.3 20.9 21.6 23.1 24.7 26.6 28.4 30.1 31.3 31.6 30.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 27.4 28.1 28.7 29.2 29.7 30.7 31.5 31.9 31.5 30.3 28.1 25.4 23.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 9 10 9 10 11 11 11 8 8 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 13. 16. 17. 17. 17. 16. 15. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 1. -4. -9. -12. -12. -12. -15. -18. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -8. -12. -15. -19. -20. -20. -20. -20. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -4. -7. -10. -9. -8. -9. -10. -11. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 19.2 27.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942022 INVEST 09/02/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.84 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 147.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.45 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.39 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 8.6% 6.8% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 2.9% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 1.2% 0.8% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 4.0% 2.7% 2.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942022 INVEST 09/02/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 25 25 26 26 25 21 18 15 16 17 16 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 25 24 24 24 24 25 25 24 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 21 22 22 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 16 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT