* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942022 09/02/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 25 26 27 28 28 26 24 22 21 22 22 25 27 32 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 25 26 27 28 28 26 24 22 21 22 22 25 27 32 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 28 28 28 26 25 24 24 25 28 32 36 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 1 2 6 9 19 25 33 35 30 22 11 8 5 5 11 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 5 3 2 -1 0 -2 -2 -4 -3 -1 -2 -1 1 0 3 SHEAR DIR 83 39 254 254 278 288 266 257 257 269 286 303 305 291 258 242 271 SST (C) 25.6 25.5 25.4 25.3 25.0 25.2 25.1 25.2 25.4 25.6 25.9 25.1 24.4 23.5 23.3 23.1 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 111 109 108 107 104 106 105 106 108 111 114 108 102 95 93 90 90 ADJ. POT. INT. 103 101 99 97 95 95 95 95 96 98 101 96 90 84 82 78 78 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -54.3 -54.8 -55.6 -55.8 -55.9 -56.0 -56.2 -56.2 -56.4 -56.2 -56.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 4 4 4 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 63 62 60 59 60 59 55 54 52 55 59 61 60 55 49 43 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 10 9 9 8 7 7 6 5 3 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 117 104 79 65 46 34 12 -1 -63 -106 -152 -146 -142 -133 -87 -90 -61 200 MB DIV 22 21 24 7 -7 13 3 16 3 3 2 25 -10 -9 -6 -33 -14 700-850 TADV 3 5 5 6 5 6 4 2 5 16 12 11 16 -2 -9 -14 -9 LAND (KM) 1065 1157 1220 1287 1348 1470 1581 1695 1780 1827 1749 1549 1275 1008 794 646 545 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.6 20.2 20.8 21.4 22.7 24.0 25.6 27.4 29.6 31.5 33.0 33.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 27.0 28.0 28.7 29.4 30.0 31.2 32.2 33.1 33.5 33.1 31.4 28.3 24.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 9 8 8 9 9 10 12 14 16 14 11 9 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 494 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 13. 16. 18. 18. 18. 17. 16. 14. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 4. -1. -6. -10. -10. -10. -11. -10. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -12. -15. -18. -21. -22. -21. -21. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -3. -0. 2. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 19.1 27.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942022 INVEST 09/02/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.91 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 148.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.38 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.39 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 9.5% 7.3% 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 2.9% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 1.6% 0.9% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 4.2% 2.9% 2.4% 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942022 INVEST 09/02/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 25 25 26 27 28 28 26 24 22 21 22 22 25 27 32 18HR AGO 25 24 24 24 25 26 27 27 25 23 21 20 21 21 24 26 31 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 22 23 24 24 22 20 18 17 18 18 21 23 28 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 17 18 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT