* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942022 09/02/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 26 26 28 29 27 26 22 20 21 21 22 24 26 31 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 26 26 28 29 27 26 22 20 21 21 22 24 26 31 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 28 29 28 27 25 24 24 25 28 32 37 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SUBT SUBT EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 2 3 9 17 24 30 38 32 23 10 7 2 8 14 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 4 2 0 0 0 -4 -3 -4 -2 1 0 1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 73 72 61 263 267 294 278 258 254 269 274 280 258 248 213 233 246 SST (C) 25.7 25.5 25.5 25.4 25.2 24.9 25.3 25.0 25.4 25.4 25.9 25.1 24.2 23.4 23.0 23.0 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 112 109 109 108 106 104 107 105 109 109 115 108 101 95 91 90 90 ADJ. POT. INT. 105 101 100 99 97 94 96 94 97 97 102 96 90 83 81 79 79 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -54.0 -54.7 -55.4 -55.9 -55.8 -55.9 -56.1 -56.4 -56.4 -56.5 -56.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 6 4 4 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 62 63 63 60 59 59 57 53 53 57 60 61 57 56 51 45 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 10 9 8 8 7 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 122 115 98 76 62 34 24 -9 -52 -109 -148 -171 -158 -128 -76 -76 -46 200 MB DIV 7 18 18 15 10 -4 12 12 10 -1 1 17 -3 4 -5 12 -14 700-850 TADV 1 2 5 5 7 5 6 4 6 7 20 17 12 4 -8 -6 -12 LAND (KM) 975 1060 1133 1208 1276 1406 1537 1656 1749 1810 1740 1537 1256 1000 809 670 522 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.3 19.8 20.4 21.0 22.2 23.6 25.1 27.0 29.2 31.5 33.1 33.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 26.0 27.0 27.8 28.6 29.3 30.6 31.8 32.8 33.3 33.1 31.3 28.1 24.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 9 9 9 9 8 9 10 12 15 16 15 11 9 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 489 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 18. 17. 16. 15. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 4. -0. -6. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -10. -12. -15. -18. -20. -21. -20. -20. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 2. 1. -3. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 18.7 26.0 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942022 INVEST 09/02/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.87 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.88 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 138.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.80 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.40 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 13.2% 9.2% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.2% 8.9% 5.3% 2.3% 0.8% 3.6% 1.7% 1.8% Bayesian: 0.3% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 7.7% 5.0% 3.6% 0.3% 1.2% 0.6% 0.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942022 INVEST 09/02/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 25 26 26 26 28 29 27 26 22 20 21 21 22 24 26 31 18HR AGO 25 24 25 25 25 27 28 26 25 21 19 20 20 21 23 25 30 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 21 23 24 22 21 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 17 18 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT