* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942022 09/01/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 28 30 32 34 32 30 26 24 20 17 16 15 17 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 28 30 32 34 32 30 26 24 20 17 16 15 17 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 27 27 29 31 31 30 29 27 25 24 24 24 25 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 10 5 1 11 20 26 32 37 30 25 19 19 26 27 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 0 1 1 1 -1 0 -2 -4 -4 -2 1 3 0 0 -7 SHEAR DIR 67 67 80 87 212 274 286 267 256 253 263 265 259 263 258 262 264 SST (C) 26.4 25.8 25.6 25.4 25.2 25.4 25.0 24.9 25.1 25.1 25.4 25.0 24.8 24.1 23.7 23.3 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 117 111 109 108 107 108 105 104 106 106 109 105 104 99 95 93 96 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 103 101 100 98 99 95 93 95 94 96 92 92 88 84 82 85 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.4 -53.8 -54.2 -54.9 -55.5 -55.8 -55.7 -55.8 -55.8 -55.7 -55.3 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 6 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 68 66 65 65 64 61 60 57 53 53 55 55 55 51 48 43 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 12 12 11 10 9 9 8 7 6 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 118 106 100 88 73 36 18 14 -29 -79 -140 -165 -167 -148 -115 -89 -72 200 MB DIV -4 -1 14 25 24 23 0 21 10 5 -12 -14 5 -4 -9 -19 -7 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 5 5 7 6 5 7 8 16 11 0 -10 -25 -19 -21 LAND (KM) 731 836 884 937 1005 1151 1297 1411 1535 1633 1653 1554 1353 1102 870 718 615 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.2 18.7 19.3 20.0 21.3 22.7 24.2 25.9 28.0 30.1 31.6 32.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 23.7 24.5 25.1 25.8 26.6 28.1 29.5 30.5 31.4 31.7 31.0 29.1 26.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 10 10 10 10 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 18. 18. 18. 17. 16. 15. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 2. -3. -8. -11. -13. -16. -18. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -16. -18. -21. -22. -22. -21. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 7. 5. 1. -1. -5. -8. -9. -10. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.6 23.7 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942022 INVEST 09/01/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.83 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.47 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 118.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.55 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.2 28.3 to 146.3 0.41 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.4% 9.2% 7.0% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.7% 16.7% 9.6% 4.3% 2.6% 11.4% 7.5% 8.7% Bayesian: 0.4% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 9.1% 5.6% 3.5% 0.9% 3.9% 2.5% 2.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942022 INVEST 09/01/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 28 28 30 32 34 32 30 26 24 20 17 16 15 17 18HR AGO 25 24 25 26 26 28 30 32 30 28 24 22 18 15 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 22 24 26 28 26 24 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 15 17 19 21 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT