* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942022 09/01/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 28 30 31 33 32 29 25 22 19 17 17 17 21 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 28 30 31 33 32 29 25 22 19 17 17 17 21 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 27 29 30 31 30 29 27 25 23 22 23 24 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 10 10 6 6 18 23 30 36 36 27 18 10 10 14 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 -1 0 1 1 0 0 -4 -3 -4 0 0 3 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 80 73 70 79 92 261 269 272 268 248 262 268 277 296 255 243 251 SST (C) 26.7 26.5 26.1 25.5 25.1 25.1 25.0 25.1 25.1 25.1 25.3 25.5 24.9 24.5 24.1 24.1 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 119 118 114 109 106 106 105 106 106 106 108 110 105 102 99 98 98 ADJ. POT. INT. 108 109 106 100 98 98 97 96 95 94 95 96 92 90 87 86 87 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.3 -53.8 -54.1 -54.9 -55.4 -56.0 -55.9 -56.1 -56.1 -56.1 -55.8 -55.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 73 71 70 67 66 63 63 60 58 56 59 61 61 58 52 45 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 12 11 10 9 9 8 7 7 6 5 3 3 1 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 120 116 105 95 87 52 25 25 -12 -53 -124 -162 -184 -156 -131 -108 -101 200 MB DIV 41 14 14 15 27 17 -4 7 -8 16 0 -4 -2 4 -26 -17 -23 700-850 TADV 2 1 -1 2 5 5 7 4 6 9 13 15 14 -2 -20 -18 -27 LAND (KM) 573 645 732 799 848 1019 1204 1364 1509 1637 1716 1684 1530 1294 1022 862 785 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.4 18.0 18.6 19.2 20.6 22.0 23.6 25.2 27.1 29.1 31.0 32.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 22.4 22.9 23.5 24.2 24.9 26.8 28.6 30.1 31.3 32.1 32.1 30.9 28.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 9 9 10 11 11 10 10 10 10 11 12 12 11 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 19. 19. 19. 18. 17. 16. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 7. 6. 3. -2. -8. -12. -13. -15. -15. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -13. -15. -17. -19. -21. -21. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 7. 4. 0. -3. -6. -8. -8. -8. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.9 22.4 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942022 INVEST 09/01/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.73 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.27 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 102.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.65 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.43 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 7.5% 6.0% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.4% 16.6% 7.8% 2.1% 1.6% 6.3% 10.3% 14.2% Bayesian: 0.5% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 1.9% 8.5% 4.7% 2.4% 0.5% 2.1% 3.4% 4.7% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942022 INVEST 09/01/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 27 28 30 31 33 32 29 25 22 19 17 17 17 21 18HR AGO 25 24 24 25 26 28 29 31 30 27 23 20 17 15 15 15 19 12HR AGO 25 22 21 22 23 25 26 28 27 24 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 18 19 21 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT