* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942022 06/27/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 46 50 58 65 71 76 77 79 81 83 87 90 94 95 V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 46 50 58 65 71 72 73 74 76 52 35 29 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 42 45 51 59 69 66 81 84 84 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 7 9 6 6 4 8 1 6 10 4 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 0 0 2 -1 1 -4 0 -3 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 349 327 1 346 41 93 52 323 21 215 205 169 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.4 27.8 27.7 27.8 27.1 27.2 27.0 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 145 137 136 137 129 129 127 138 140 141 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 148 149 145 137 136 137 129 129 127 138 140 141 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -53.7 -54.3 -53.9 -54.2 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -53.3 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 6 5 8 6 9 7 8 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 69 69 70 70 70 68 71 69 71 70 72 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 81 77 77 69 67 69 73 79 87 104 83 73 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 40 57 76 100 100 109 66 47 6 36 18 43 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 -1 -7 -7 6 1 -3 0 -3 -1 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 466 417 394 417 332 22 122 46 23 183 327 153 -161 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 8.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 50.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 17 17 19 20 19 18 18 17 16 15 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 37 26 21 24 12 4 6 4 26 20 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 27. 29. 31. 32. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 12. 12. 12. 13. 13. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 23. 30. 36. 41. 42. 44. 46. 48. 52. 55. 59. 60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 8.4 50.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942022 INVEST 06/27/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.83 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.19 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 108.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 2.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.8 28.3 to 146.3 0.67 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.48 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 27.9% 18.9% 9.8% 7.3% 15.0% 22.4% 27.0% Logistic: 10.8% 36.7% 19.7% 8.7% 5.5% 16.2% 28.7% 49.1% Bayesian: 4.6% 42.2% 13.7% 3.1% 1.4% 11.4% 16.0% 54.7% Consensus: 7.3% 35.6% 17.4% 7.2% 4.7% 14.2% 22.4% 43.6% DTOPS: 3.0% 4.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942022 INVEST 06/27/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942022 INVEST 06/27/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 42 46 50 58 65 71 72 73 74 76 52 35 29 28 27 18HR AGO 35 34 38 42 46 54 61 67 68 69 70 72 48 31 25 24 23 12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 39 47 54 60 61 62 63 65 41 24 18 17 16 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 29 37 44 50 51 52 53 55 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT