* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942022 06/27/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 36 41 49 56 66 74 80 86 93 103 106 103 107 109 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 36 41 49 56 66 74 80 86 93 89 48 36 31 29 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 40 46 55 66 78 88 97 100 48 36 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 6 5 6 6 8 7 3 7 2 3 7 3 10 8 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 0 -2 0 0 -1 -4 0 -2 -6 0 -2 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 358 353 325 351 59 85 73 92 10 139 286 130 113 120 55 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.3 27.7 27.8 27.3 27.3 27.0 27.8 28.1 28.4 28.2 28.5 28.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 149 144 136 138 131 131 127 137 140 143 140 146 152 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 146 147 149 144 136 138 131 131 127 137 140 143 140 146 152 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 -53.9 -54.6 -53.8 -54.3 -53.6 -54.1 -53.4 -53.6 -53.1 -53.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 8 7 8 7 7 6 7 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 66 69 68 68 67 69 67 68 68 68 70 68 69 67 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 11 13 12 10 11 12 12 14 16 20 19 14 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 77 78 75 76 70 72 77 72 88 96 82 72 71 79 60 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 27 32 51 68 88 115 70 49 21 35 15 15 49 70 61 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -2 -6 0 5 -3 -6 0 -4 0 0 2 -8 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 516 452 415 401 410 153 56 102 16 173 347 209 -10 -89 -28 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 8.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 49.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 17 19 20 20 20 19 17 19 16 12 12 14 15 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 30 37 37 24 21 28 5 7 5 20 22 31 15 14 13 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 26. 29. 32. 35. 37. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -4. -2. 2. 1. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 11. 19. 26. 36. 44. 50. 56. 64. 73. 76. 73. 77. 79. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 8.2 49.1 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942022 INVEST 06/27/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.87 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.20 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 97.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.58 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.73 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.38 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 16.3% 10.1% 8.1% 6.1% 10.5% 12.3% 25.9% Logistic: 5.1% 16.8% 8.2% 1.7% 0.8% 4.5% 15.7% 24.2% Bayesian: 2.2% 18.2% 4.6% 0.7% 0.3% 2.5% 4.8% 31.3% Consensus: 4.0% 17.1% 7.6% 3.5% 2.4% 5.9% 10.9% 27.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942022 INVEST 06/27/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942022 INVEST 06/27/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 36 41 49 56 66 74 80 86 93 89 48 36 31 29 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 38 46 53 63 71 77 83 90 86 45 33 28 26 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 33 41 48 58 66 72 78 85 81 40 28 23 21 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 33 40 50 58 64 70 77 73 32 20 15 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT