* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942022 06/27/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 40 48 58 67 76 83 86 92 97 100 99 103 105 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 40 48 58 67 76 76 79 85 90 71 41 31 28 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 35 41 48 57 68 65 82 89 91 71 40 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 7 7 3 4 5 5 6 2 6 9 4 10 6 8 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -3 -5 0 -2 -2 -2 0 3 2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 12 24 53 43 346 27 60 45 11 360 256 228 214 179 153 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.0 28.1 27.7 26.6 27.1 27.3 27.9 28.0 28.5 28.6 29.1 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 143 143 142 139 141 136 123 128 131 138 138 145 148 156 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 143 143 143 142 139 141 136 123 128 131 138 138 145 148 156 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.0 -53.5 -53.9 -54.4 -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -54.4 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 5 6 5 8 6 9 7 8 7 7 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 68 67 67 68 69 69 65 70 68 69 67 68 67 66 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 13 12 12 13 12 13 14 14 16 18 19 18 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 72 77 83 85 83 71 76 82 81 85 97 67 65 62 62 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 55 56 77 100 74 60 61 58 75 7 39 21 51 71 74 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -1 -3 -8 4 1 0 -1 -2 0 1 2 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 606 530 455 421 414 329 33 95 66 16 208 360 239 -87 -92 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 8.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 47.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 16 16 17 18 19 18 19 19 17 13 13 16 17 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 31 27 35 31 21 26 12 1 6 7 31 21 32 12 12 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 26. 29. 32. 35. 36. 37. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. 14. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -3. -4. -2. 0. 1. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 10. 18. 28. 37. 46. 53. 56. 62. 67. 70. 69. 73. 75. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 8.0 47.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942022 INVEST 06/27/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.90 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.19 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 86.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.50 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.9 28.3 to 146.3 0.71 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.47 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 30% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 15.4% 9.7% 7.7% 5.7% 10.2% 12.3% 29.7% Logistic: 4.7% 33.5% 18.7% 6.9% 4.0% 12.2% 19.0% 46.6% Bayesian: 1.0% 4.6% 1.7% 0.3% 0.1% 1.0% 10.5% 44.1% Consensus: 3.2% 17.8% 10.0% 4.9% 3.3% 7.8% 13.9% 40.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942022 INVEST 06/27/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942022 INVEST 06/27/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 38 40 48 58 67 76 76 79 85 90 71 41 31 28 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 37 45 55 64 73 73 76 82 87 68 38 28 25 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 31 39 49 58 67 67 70 76 81 62 32 22 19 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 30 40 49 58 58 61 67 72 53 23 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT