* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942022 06/27/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 42 48 56 66 73 77 79 84 89 94 97 97 93 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 42 48 56 66 73 67 67 72 76 81 84 51 34 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 38 43 50 60 69 77 62 76 82 84 82 51 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 9 9 7 9 4 10 5 7 6 9 9 9 8 5 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 0 0 0 -1 0 -3 -3 -3 0 -2 2 2 8 6 SHEAR DIR 351 353 14 41 31 4 57 65 101 325 258 294 233 239 166 234 104 SST (C) 28.0 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.3 26.7 27.0 27.5 28.0 27.8 28.3 28.2 28.6 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 139 143 144 145 145 141 138 131 123 126 132 138 135 142 140 146 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 143 144 145 145 141 138 131 123 126 132 138 135 142 138 146 150 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.3 -54.1 -53.8 -54.1 -54.6 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.4 -53.7 -54.1 -53.6 -54.0 -53.2 -53.5 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 6 5 5 6 6 7 6 8 6 8 6 7 6 7 700-500 MB RH 73 74 69 69 71 72 70 67 70 72 75 75 75 73 72 70 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 14 13 11 12 12 14 13 14 13 15 17 20 20 19 13 850 MB ENV VOR 67 68 72 70 75 72 68 81 82 78 84 90 95 73 59 59 64 200 MB DIV 37 41 33 45 59 34 45 69 89 28 20 59 47 38 66 51 44 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -2 -2 -3 -5 0 5 1 0 0 -3 2 5 9 6 4 LAND (KM) 771 643 552 471 409 409 275 33 95 -6 20 130 319 328 76 -173 -154 LAT (DEG N) 7.8 7.8 8.0 8.3 8.6 9.5 10.4 11.0 11.4 11.6 11.9 12.1 12.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 45.3 46.8 48.3 49.9 51.5 54.9 58.4 62.2 65.8 69.2 72.4 75.3 78.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 16 16 17 17 19 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 41 35 31 33 36 23 34 6 2 4 8 18 17 24 15 3 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 14. 19. 23. 26. 29. 32. 34. 35. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -0. -2. -2. -4. -2. -1. 2. 2. 0. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 18. 26. 36. 43. 47. 49. 54. 59. 64. 67. 67. 63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 7.8 45.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942022 INVEST 06/27/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.81 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.23 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 59.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.72 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.34 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 17.3% 10.7% 8.8% 6.5% 10.5% 12.1% 21.9% Logistic: 3.3% 19.5% 9.6% 2.4% 1.2% 5.0% 13.2% 33.5% Bayesian: 0.9% 13.1% 3.7% 0.4% 0.3% 2.4% 6.1% 26.3% Consensus: 3.3% 16.7% 8.0% 3.9% 2.7% 6.0% 10.5% 27.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942022 INVEST 06/27/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942022 INVEST 06/27/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 39 42 48 56 66 73 67 67 72 76 81 84 51 34 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 38 44 52 62 69 63 63 68 72 77 80 47 30 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 38 46 56 63 57 57 62 66 71 74 41 24 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 29 37 47 54 48 48 53 57 62 65 32 15 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT