* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942022 06/26/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 47 53 61 68 73 76 82 85 91 98 102 104 101 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 47 53 61 68 53 62 47 42 48 56 60 62 59 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 41 46 54 63 52 64 50 52 56 68 77 79 75 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 7 10 9 11 15 16 17 6 12 2 5 11 10 16 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 2 1 1 0 -4 -5 -4 0 -5 2 -2 -1 -2 4 4 SHEAR DIR 30 352 360 45 60 36 34 53 56 41 19 316 304 216 236 224 238 SST (C) 28.0 28.2 28.5 28.5 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.8 25.8 26.5 27.0 28.2 27.9 27.9 28.0 27.9 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 140 142 146 146 148 143 139 136 114 120 125 140 136 136 138 137 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 142 146 146 148 143 139 136 114 120 124 140 136 135 138 137 143 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -54.2 -53.9 -53.6 -54.6 -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -54.5 -53.8 -54.2 -53.9 -53.8 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 6 5 6 4 8 5 8 6 8 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 71 73 74 72 71 72 75 75 72 76 75 77 74 75 72 69 70 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 14 13 11 12 13 12 12 14 13 14 17 20 21 19 850 MB ENV VOR 61 68 69 73 79 79 74 86 90 87 80 90 76 95 70 58 56 200 MB DIV 8 25 55 57 87 57 12 55 103 108 11 45 70 55 40 49 72 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -1 -1 0 -4 -6 3 3 1 0 0 0 4 7 13 -7 LAND (KM) 845 675 539 440 357 303 213 23 -4 33 -35 -5 78 243 436 140 34 LAT (DEG N) 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.8 8.0 8.5 9.3 9.9 10.5 10.8 11.2 11.4 11.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 44.5 46.4 48.1 49.7 51.3 54.5 57.7 61.0 64.2 67.1 69.7 72.0 74.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 19 18 16 16 16 16 16 16 15 13 12 12 12 12 14 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 41 37 37 40 38 27 30 12 0 1 4 20 14 32 24 13 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 29. 32. 34. 35. 36. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. 10. 8. 7. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -2. -5. -4. -0. 2. 3. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 17. 23. 31. 38. 43. 46. 52. 55. 61. 68. 72. 74. 71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 7.8 44.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942022 INVEST 06/26/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 7.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.81 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.25 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.82 4.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 50.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.89 3.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.57 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.4 28.3 to 146.3 0.73 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.35 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 3.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.9% 34.2% 25.2% 11.4% 7.8% 14.9% 13.7% 16.1% Logistic: 12.3% 48.3% 31.2% 13.2% 10.8% 24.0% 25.5% 54.9% Bayesian: 2.4% 42.2% 19.2% 4.5% 1.5% 11.2% 7.4% 75.1% Consensus: 7.9% 41.6% 25.2% 9.7% 6.7% 16.7% 15.5% 48.7% DTOPS: 2.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942022 INVEST 06/26/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942022 INVEST 06/26/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 38 43 47 53 61 68 53 62 47 42 48 56 60 62 59 18HR AGO 30 29 33 38 42 48 56 63 48 57 42 37 43 51 55 57 54 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 35 41 49 56 41 50 35 30 36 44 48 50 47 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 30 38 45 30 39 24 19 25 33 37 39 36 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT