* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942022 06/26/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 42 49 58 65 70 77 84 91 97 101 102 96 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 42 49 58 63 62 57 52 64 70 74 64 48 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 30 32 34 37 41 47 51 54 53 51 65 77 83 70 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 8 9 11 13 17 14 17 5 13 2 6 8 10 1 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 0 0 0 0 -3 -5 -5 -2 -6 7 0 0 0 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 43 26 2 2 30 59 30 56 39 67 345 80 293 254 250 306 319 SST (C) 28.0 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 27.8 26.9 26.5 26.8 27.6 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.3 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 143 146 146 144 143 137 126 121 124 133 136 137 139 143 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 140 143 146 146 144 143 137 126 121 124 133 136 137 139 143 148 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 -53.9 -54.2 -54.6 -54.1 -54.5 -53.9 -54.3 -53.7 -54.1 -53.5 -53.6 -52.8 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 6 7 6 7 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 69 70 74 75 72 73 74 73 70 73 75 76 74 75 74 74 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 13 14 12 12 13 13 11 14 14 16 18 21 19 12 850 MB ENV VOR 51 58 63 67 71 80 78 78 86 85 81 88 91 101 73 54 52 200 MB DIV -13 6 23 40 56 92 17 23 71 99 48 39 56 82 63 34 21 700-850 TADV 1 -1 -4 -2 -1 -2 -6 -1 3 1 0 0 0 5 2 -1 -9 LAND (KM) 1010 820 661 530 440 328 331 175 8 46 -25 -29 151 374 303 -32 8 LAT (DEG N) 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.6 7.8 8.4 9.1 9.9 10.5 11.0 11.3 11.9 12.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 42.8 44.7 46.4 48.1 49.7 52.8 56.0 59.3 62.7 66.0 69.0 71.8 74.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 20 18 17 16 16 16 16 17 17 15 14 14 15 14 15 16 17 HEAT CONTENT 33 42 41 40 40 26 29 22 3 1 3 10 17 38 19 25 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 8. 15. 20. 25. 28. 32. 35. 38. 39. 40. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 10. 10. 8. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -5. -3. -3. -0. 1. 3. 0. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 17. 24. 33. 40. 45. 52. 59. 66. 72. 76. 77. 71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 7.8 42.8 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942022 INVEST 06/26/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.77 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.26 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 42.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.90 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.66 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.1 28.3 to 146.3 0.76 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.24 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 16.2% 10.0% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0% 11.1% 0.0% Logistic: 10.7% 43.8% 27.0% 8.2% 7.6% 18.9% 31.5% 62.5% Bayesian: 1.6% 22.1% 3.7% 1.3% 0.4% 4.1% 27.0% 83.7% Consensus: 5.9% 27.4% 13.6% 5.9% 2.7% 7.7% 23.2% 48.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942022 INVEST 06/26/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942022 INVEST 06/26/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 30 33 37 42 49 58 63 62 57 52 64 70 74 64 48 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 34 39 46 55 60 59 54 49 61 67 71 61 45 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 28 33 40 49 54 53 48 43 55 61 65 55 39 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 24 31 40 45 44 39 34 46 52 56 46 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT