* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942022 06/26/22 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 41 48 55 63 69 75 82 88 95 101 102 101 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 41 48 55 63 69 75 82 88 95 101 102 54 V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 33 36 39 44 51 60 71 81 89 93 94 89 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 9 8 9 13 9 12 9 8 2 8 8 7 8 3 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 0 0 0 1 0 2 -2 -3 -1 0 -5 0 -3 -1 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 47 49 33 5 357 39 40 37 52 36 221 341 270 280 213 246 49 SST (C) 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.0 27.7 27.7 27.1 27.1 27.4 27.7 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 139 141 141 141 145 148 139 136 136 128 128 131 135 137 136 140 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 141 141 141 145 148 139 136 136 128 128 131 135 137 135 140 142 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.2 -54.0 -54.1 -54.3 -53.7 -54.6 -54.2 -54.3 -53.9 -54.4 -54.0 -53.9 -53.6 -53.5 -53.1 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 5 8 6 8 7 8 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 68 71 72 75 75 71 72 73 69 69 71 73 75 74 77 75 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 12 13 13 12 12 11 11 11 13 14 17 20 19 14 850 MB ENV VOR 43 51 57 61 60 70 75 63 61 74 83 84 92 89 79 63 75 200 MB DIV 8 -1 1 21 30 74 46 22 40 76 102 35 54 50 70 41 44 700-850 TADV 2 0 -1 -2 -1 -1 -2 -4 3 4 -2 -1 -2 0 2 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1143 1065 926 783 651 479 401 370 90 123 128 15 183 358 357 62 -159 LAT (DEG N) 7.8 7.7 7.7 7.7 7.8 8.4 9.2 10.2 11.0 11.8 12.2 12.5 12.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 40.5 42.1 43.6 45.1 46.7 49.9 53.1 56.5 60.2 64.1 67.8 71.4 74.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 15 16 16 17 18 20 19 18 17 15 13 13 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 28 33 43 50 40 33 21 19 15 5 8 8 16 21 17 17 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 8. 15. 20. 25. 29. 32. 35. 38. 39. 40. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. 1. 4. 2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 16. 23. 30. 38. 44. 50. 57. 63. 70. 76. 77. 76. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 7.8 40.5 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942022 INVEST 06/26/22 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.72 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.26 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 38.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.90 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.64 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.6 28.3 to 146.3 0.75 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.19 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 14.8% 9.3% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0% 11.2% 0.0% Logistic: 5.5% 24.6% 13.0% 3.1% 2.6% 10.7% 17.4% 55.9% Bayesian: 0.9% 18.7% 2.1% 0.6% 0.2% 2.1% 7.1% 75.9% Consensus: 3.7% 19.4% 8.2% 3.7% 0.9% 4.2% 11.9% 43.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942022 INVEST 06/26/22 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942022 INVEST 06/26/2022 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 29 32 35 41 48 55 63 69 75 82 88 95 101 102 54 18HR AGO 25 24 26 29 32 38 45 52 60 66 72 79 85 92 98 99 51 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 33 40 47 55 61 67 74 80 87 93 94 46 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 24 31 38 46 52 58 65 71 78 84 85 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT