* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942022 06/26/22 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 22 24 27 36 42 49 56 62 69 78 82 89 94 98 97 V (KT) LAND 20 20 22 24 27 36 42 49 56 62 69 78 82 89 94 98 48 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 24 26 29 34 42 53 65 75 81 83 82 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 13 9 8 7 8 9 2 4 3 5 5 10 7 2 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 4 0 0 0 2 4 2 0 0 -2 -4 1 -1 -2 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 37 45 42 39 16 1 49 32 66 352 158 280 225 246 173 81 89 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.1 28.1 28.4 28.1 27.5 27.7 27.9 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.4 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 138 140 140 145 141 133 136 139 136 136 137 138 138 144 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 140 138 140 140 145 141 133 136 139 136 136 137 138 138 144 151 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.5 -54.3 -54.1 -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -54.7 -54.2 -54.5 -54.0 -54.3 -53.7 -53.9 -53.3 -53.5 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 7 8 7 7 5 7 700-500 MB RH 63 68 71 73 74 71 70 66 68 65 68 71 71 71 74 71 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 10 11 11 11 13 12 12 12 11 11 13 13 16 18 18 13 850 MB ENV VOR 29 45 54 55 58 67 71 59 55 57 72 76 97 95 92 88 85 200 MB DIV 7 11 -1 1 15 34 77 31 11 22 68 60 56 59 54 23 37 700-850 TADV 1 2 0 0 -2 0 -1 -7 0 4 2 -2 2 -1 3 -2 0 LAND (KM) 1226 1203 1137 1049 909 663 511 514 315 178 269 137 256 405 278 0 -192 LAT (DEG N) 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 8.1 8.5 9.3 10.4 11.5 12.3 13.0 13.3 13.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 38.3 39.7 41.1 42.5 44.0 47.3 50.8 54.4 58.2 62.3 66.4 70.3 74.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 15 18 18 19 20 21 20 19 18 17 14 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 25 28 27 33 43 26 32 14 22 13 22 18 20 24 19 25 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 2. 8. 16. 21. 26. 31. 35. 39. 42. 44. 45. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 0. -1. 3. 4. 3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 2. 4. 7. 16. 22. 29. 36. 42. 49. 58. 62. 69. 74. 78. 77. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 8.0 38.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942022 INVEST 06/26/22 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.67 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 44.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.90 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.48 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.7 28.3 to 146.3 0.77 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 13.7% 7.9% 3.4% 2.4% 5.6% 5.9% 28.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 8.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 20.4% Consensus: 1.0% 7.2% 2.9% 1.2% 0.8% 1.9% 2.1% 16.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942022 INVEST 06/26/22 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942022 INVEST 06/26/2022 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 22 24 27 36 42 49 56 62 69 78 82 89 94 98 48 18HR AGO 20 19 21 23 26 35 41 48 55 61 68 77 81 88 93 97 47 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 21 30 36 43 50 56 63 72 76 83 88 92 42 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT