* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942022 06/25/22 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 25 31 40 47 55 61 68 76 83 89 94 96 95 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 25 31 40 47 55 61 68 76 83 89 94 96 56 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 20 21 22 25 28 32 38 46 56 66 75 81 81 49 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 13 12 8 6 8 6 5 2 5 5 3 7 8 7 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 11 5 0 1 2 3 3 0 0 -4 0 -3 0 -1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 38 32 48 45 42 357 35 16 17 353 325 177 320 240 255 214 102 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.4 27.6 27.6 27.9 28.3 27.9 27.9 28.0 27.8 28.0 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 138 137 138 142 145 134 135 139 145 139 139 139 136 138 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 139 138 137 138 142 145 134 135 139 145 139 139 139 136 138 145 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.3 -54.1 -54.3 -53.8 -54.5 -54.1 -54.4 -54.0 -54.3 -54.0 -53.7 -53.4 -53.3 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 7 6 8 7 8 7 8 6 7 700-500 MB RH 62 64 69 71 72 73 69 67 66 66 65 70 69 71 71 73 72 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 11 11 12 13 12 12 11 11 12 13 14 16 16 11 850 MB ENV VOR 19 29 43 52 49 58 66 59 49 53 63 77 83 100 89 87 90 200 MB DIV 6 8 16 3 -1 8 42 40 39 51 59 70 35 36 48 46 50 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 0 -1 0 0 -3 -3 2 1 -1 0 2 0 2 1 LAND (KM) 1270 1237 1228 1166 1079 787 595 523 501 204 305 234 199 371 388 79 -184 LAT (DEG N) 8.1 8.1 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.3 9.1 10.2 11.5 12.5 13.4 13.8 14.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 36.9 38.3 39.6 40.9 42.3 45.5 49.1 52.6 56.3 60.3 64.5 68.7 72.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 13 14 17 18 19 20 21 21 20 19 17 15 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 24 25 27 25 30 41 23 17 17 18 33 42 19 37 17 15 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 2. 8. 16. 21. 26. 31. 35. 39. 42. 44. 45. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 1. 1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 0. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 3. 5. 11. 20. 27. 35. 41. 48. 56. 63. 69. 74. 76. 75. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 8.1 36.9 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942022 INVEST 06/25/22 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.65 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 51.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.89 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.3 28.3 to 146.3 0.76 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.17 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.4% 5.5% 2.6% 1.1% 0.8% 3.3% 5.5% 20.5% Bayesian: 0.1% 3.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 2.3% Consensus: 0.5% 3.0% 1.0% 0.4% 0.3% 1.1% 1.9% 7.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942022 INVEST 06/25/22 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942022 INVEST 06/25/2022 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 21 23 25 31 40 47 55 61 68 76 83 89 94 96 56 18HR AGO 20 19 20 22 24 30 39 46 54 60 67 75 82 88 93 95 55 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 20 26 35 42 50 56 63 71 78 84 89 91 51 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT