* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL942022 06/25/22 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 23 26 32 41 49 56 63 72 79 87 92 98 101 106 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 23 26 32 41 49 56 63 72 79 87 92 98 101 106 V (KT) LGEM 20 20 20 21 21 23 26 30 34 39 47 59 72 81 85 87 86 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 11 11 10 7 11 5 9 3 1 9 4 4 8 7 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 10 11 4 0 1 -1 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 0 -3 -3 0 1 SHEAR DIR 40 39 27 51 46 9 347 339 356 63 71 139 195 202 261 168 159 SST (C) 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.7 28.0 28.2 27.8 27.3 27.8 28.1 27.7 27.7 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 138 138 134 139 143 137 131 137 142 136 136 137 137 134 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 138 138 138 134 139 143 137 131 137 142 136 136 137 136 131 132 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.3 -54.4 -54.5 -54.4 -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -54.6 -54.2 -54.4 -53.8 -54.2 -53.5 -53.6 -53.2 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 8 7 8 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 66 63 65 68 71 72 68 68 67 67 66 68 71 72 73 74 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 10 12 12 13 13 12 12 12 12 14 13 17 17 20 850 MB ENV VOR 16 21 29 37 47 47 56 62 52 53 63 77 82 94 96 83 76 200 MB DIV 23 7 8 24 10 10 18 48 42 33 38 84 72 51 43 55 68 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 2 0 -2 -2 -3 -3 -1 2 2 -4 2 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 1349 1322 1299 1280 1219 964 709 558 546 255 233 280 148 279 410 367 129 LAT (DEG N) 8.3 8.5 8.6 8.6 8.6 8.7 9.1 9.9 11.0 12.0 12.8 13.4 13.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 35.3 36.6 37.9 39.3 40.6 43.8 47.4 51.1 55.0 59.0 63.1 67.1 70.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 14 17 19 19 20 20 21 19 18 16 14 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 24 21 22 26 22 37 21 29 12 22 19 26 17 25 29 17 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 3. 9. 16. 21. 26. 31. 34. 38. 42. 43. 44. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -4. -2. -3. 1. 1. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 6. 12. 21. 29. 36. 43. 52. 59. 67. 72. 78. 81. 86. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 8.3 35.3 ** 2021 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL942022 INVEST 06/25/22 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.65 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 61.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.50 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.5 28.3 to 146.3 0.76 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.20 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 7.2% 3.3% 1.4% 1.1% 4.2% 7.9% 17.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 5.1% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.8% 9.1% Consensus: 0.7% 4.1% 1.3% 0.5% 0.4% 1.5% 2.9% 9.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL942022 INVEST 06/25/22 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL942022 INVEST 06/25/2022 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 20 21 23 26 32 41 49 56 63 72 79 87 92 98 101 106 18HR AGO 20 19 20 22 25 31 40 48 55 62 71 78 86 91 97 100 105 12HR AGO 20 17 16 18 21 27 36 44 51 58 67 74 82 87 93 96 101 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT